Market Comments & News

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Market Comments & News

Post  Yellowcaked on Wed Oct 22, 2008 7:49 pm

I just did a refresh on my Yahoo financials stock page and look what it came up with?

Anybody see anything on that DJIA down number?

I promise, I did not retouch a thing! Eeek!

Last update: 02:41 pm CDT - Refresh

*
toggle Quotes - Edit
Symbol Price Change
DJIA
8,367.00 -666.66 -7.38%
^NYA
5,513.13 -538.21 -8.89%
S&P 500
879.21 -75.84 -7.94%
NASDAQ
1,588.91 -107.77 -6.35%
^DJT
3,511.02 -255.32 -6.78%


Last edited by Shelby on Wed Oct 22, 2008 9:08 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : no religious discussion allowed, please review the "Every one is welcome here" thread for instructions)

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Noriel Roubini - One Of The World's Foremost Economists - NYU - RGE Monitor

Post  Yellowcaked on Mon Oct 27, 2008 12:21 pm

Russia's CDS Spreads Spike: How Much Is Russia's Default Risk Rising?

* The cost of insuring Russian bonds against bankruptcy (spreads of Credit default swaps on Russia's debt ) rocketed to 1,123 bps, higher than Iceland's debt before it sought a rescue from the International Monetary Fund (Telegraph) Although other emerging markets including Baltic countries, Turkey and CEE countries have higher external financing needs and run current account deficits, the reduction in Russia's reserves, the prospect of current account and fiscal deficits, the implicit and explicit state assumption of significant corporate debt as the oil price slumps point to further risk.

* Russian sovereign bonds were already trading at higher risk than other EM sovereign bonds even before S&P lowered its credit ratings outlook to negative from stable citing the worsening outlook for public finance in light of lower oil prices and increasing government support of the banking sector

* Russia still looks stronger than some of its peers despite vulnerabilities (Uralsib) - strengthening capital outflows as deposits are converted into dollars which may prompt restrictions on fx transactions. Several other commodity export-led economies could face similar worries, yet they have not been downgraded - the difference may be due to perception of higher political risk and government-led consolidation in Russia

* The Russian banks’ dependence on wholesale and external funding is key to the economy’s vulnerability, which can be expected to mount if commodity prices fall further (Citi) Although the CBR's reserves far exceed Russia's short-term debt, they barely cover Russia's total external debt. Intervention to stabilize the rouble is depleting reserves rapidly (though the dollar rally also reduces the value of EUR and GBP holdings). Russia has to roll over $40b in debt this quarter and $150b in the next year. and the Government has promised over $200 billion in short and long-term capital to ease liquidity crunch and substitute for external finance

* Russia may run a current account deficit with oil in the $60-70 a barrel range given the ramp up in imports and reduction in oil inflows - capital flows have already reversed and Russian investors flight to USD has pressured the rouble.

* Weafer: An oil price in the $60’s/bbl should still mean a defendable ruble, but there will be a lot more pressure at $60/bbl, or lower. A combination of falling oil and a weakening currency will increase downward pressure on equity and bond markets. The correlation between the price of oil and the RTS was not very tight as oil was rising but it has increased on the downward trajectory.

* Lacking a developed domestic bond market, the only way for oligarchs to raise money at present is by selling their equity, contributing to massive equity selloffs. Russia's unique fragility is that over $1 trillion of debt needs to financed from a domestic capital pool of $600bn (Bond)

* Now that Russia's own sovereign debt is in question, and many other emerging markets are turning to the IMF to stabilize their balance of payments, markets no longer believe Russia is strong enough to guarantee the estimated $530bn of foreign debts accumulated by its companies during the break-neck expansion of the oil boom. (Redeker, via telegraph)

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Re: Market Comments & News

Post  Yellowcaked on Mon Oct 27, 2008 12:50 pm

Wall Street ready for another drop

http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/27/markets/stockswatch/index.htm?postversion=2008102706[url] http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/27/markets/stockswatch/index.htm?postversion=2008102706[/url]

[QUOTE]8:08am: Futures tumble as turmoil sweeps markets worldwide. Slew of economic reports on tap this week. more
Hong Kong shares plunge 13%, Nikkei hits 26-year low
Check futures, world markets

By CNNMoney.com staff
Last Updated: October 27, 2008: 8:08 AM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stock futures tumbled early Monday as turmoil gripped markets around the world.

At 8 a.m. ET, Dow Jones industrial average futures were down about 200 points. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures also fell sharply. Those declines, while off of earlier lows, still pointed to a more than than 3% opening drop in both the blue chip S&P and the tech-heavy Nasdaq.

Futures measure current index values against perceived future performance and give an indication of how markets might perform when trading begins in New York.

The Dow has not closed below the 8,000 mark in five years, but another bad day could take the closely watched measure below that benchmark. It has only fallen below 8,000 once, during intra-day trading on Oct. 10, during the recent market upheaval.

Sometimes investors will use an arbitrary market level to trigger automatic buying or selling programs, which can put a floor under stocks during a selloff. But many market analysts said they can't count on the 8,000 mark being such a floor at this point.

"I don't know that anyone can legitimately forecast what the bottom is going to be or where the market starts to turn," said Rich Yamarone, director of economic research at Argus Research. He said it's not clear when major investors, such as hedge funds, will be willing to return to buying.

"You don't go out in a hurricane, you wait until it blows away," he said.

Global markets: Global stock indexes continued to slide Monday. Losses piled up in Asia, where Japan's Nikkei tumbled 6.4% to close at a 26-year low, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng plunged 13%. In Europe, major markets fell in morning trading, with major markets there off between 3% and 6% in early trading.

David Kelly, chief market strategist for JPMorgan Funds, said that it's fear about the selloff in overseas markets, more than any economic or company news driving futures lower early Monday. He also is reluctant to predict when investors will put a floor under the recent downward plunge.

"The market is in a manic phase," Kelly said. "It's like a kid throwing a tantrum. At some point you have to let them cry themselves out because there's no reasoning with them. Eventually, the market will respond more to fundamentals."

In currency markets, the dollar continued its recent rise against the euro, but the yen gained on both currencies once again. The relative strength of the dollar briefly pushed oil futures below the $62 a barrel mark. The price rebounded slightly after hitting that low but was still off $2.15 to $62 for a barrel of light crude for December delivery.

The group of the world's seven major economies, the G-7, issued a statement early Monday voicing concern about "recent excessive volatility in the exchange rate of the yen and its possible adverse implications for economic and financial stability."

The statement was seen as a green light for the Bank of Japan to intervene in currency markets to stop the currency from gaining too much strength. A stronger yen can hurt the competitiveness of Japanese exports by driving up the price of that country's goods.

Stocks have suffered heavy losses amid growing concerns of a deep and prolonged global economic slump. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 3.6% on Friday. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 3.5% and the Nasdaq composite slid 3.2%.

Economy: A report on September new home sales was on tap at 10 a.m. ET. Economists are again forecasting that new home sales fell to a new 17-year low.

The release is the first of several due out this week. Readings on consumer confidence, gross domestic product and personal income and spending are all due later in the week.

Corporate news: Eight regional banks, including Key Corp (KEY, Fortune 500)., Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB, Fortune 500) and Capital One Financial (COF, Fortune 500), announced they would be getting their own influsion of capital from the Treasury Department as part of the federal government's $700 billion Wall Street bailout. Those three will receive a total of $9.5 billion. The announcements follow the original investment of $125 billion of taxpayer money in nine of the nation's largest banks earlier this month.

In another move to try to help frozen credit markets unfreeze, the Federal Reserve is set to open its commercial paper funding facility. Commercial paper is the primary source of short-term borrowing major companies and banks to fund their daily operations running.

The credit crunch has caused major sources of that funding, such as money market funds, pull out of that market in the last six weeks, causing the amount of borrowing to tumble 20% during that time. The hope is that by the Fed starting to lend directly to companies by its purchases of commercial paper, there will be a significant improvement in frozen credit markets.

Dow component Verizon Communications (VC, Fortune 500) posted slightly improved earnings that met the forecasts of analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters. are forecasting a narrow gain in earnings and revenue, but the company's outlook will probably be of greater interest to investors. To top of page
First Published: October 27, 2008: 5:39 AM ET[quote]

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U.S. Dollar

Post  Jim on Mon Oct 27, 2008 10:53 pm

IMO, the US dollar will start moving down again anytime after the November 4th US elections.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/US/W

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Jim Sinclair

Post  Jeremy on Fri Oct 31, 2008 2:22 am

http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/6673_Dear_Friends.pdf

Dear Friends,
I, like yourself, am fed up with the gold bank's ownership of the gold price via paper instruments. Therefore I respectfully ask those that can afford it to purchase as many Comex contracts as you can afford to take delivery of and do so.
Accept my assurance that I will take delivery of Comex 100 ounce bars on every delivery month from this day forward.
Respectfully yours, Jim

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Roger Wiegand

Post  Jim on Mon Nov 03, 2008 9:01 am

Good article by Roger Wiegand:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wiegand/oct302008.html

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Hal Turner

Post  Jim on Wed Nov 05, 2008 4:57 am

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=1954933468700958565&hl=s

http://www.snopes.com/politics/business/amero.asp

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Fiction

Post  Shelby on Wed Nov 05, 2008 8:10 am

Jim wrote:Hal Turner

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=1954933468700958565&hl=s

http://www.snopes.com/politics/business/amero.asp

Fiction, as I already explained a few days ago:

http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/general-f1/fact-or-fiction-t22.htm#130

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Rogers on silver and gold.

Post  Jim on Wed Nov 05, 2008 6:37 pm

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/11.08/betterthangold.html

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Fiction

Post  Jim on Wed Nov 05, 2008 10:16 pm

Shelby wrote:
Jim wrote:Hal Turner

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=1954933468700958565&hl=s

http://www.snopes.com/politics/business/amero.asp

Fiction, as I already explained a few days ago:

http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/general-f1/fact-or-fiction-t22.htm#130

Thanks, Shelby. Missed your post. Challenging to try to read everything these days.

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Noriel Roubini - One Of The World's Foremost Economists - NYU - RGE Monitor

Post  Shelby on Fri Nov 07, 2008 7:40 am

yellowcaked wrote:Some very good reading on what is happening from a global perspective.

Roubini Economonitor

On Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor, Nouriel Roubini warns that the worst in markets and economies is yet to come. On October 23rd, Nouriel predicted the potential shutdown of financial markets. A day later U.S. stock futures suspended trading after declines of more than 6% at opening tripped the circuit breakers. Nonetheless, Nouriel does not expect another Great Depression, but states that policymakers must act quickly and wisely.

Here are the main elements of Nouriel’s outlook: Tsunami of corporate defaults; 2-year U-shaped U.S. recession that threatens to turn into an L-shaped one if policymakers do not regain control of the financial system; global re-coupling to the U.S. will advance from non-U.S. markets to non-U.S. real economies – not even the strongest emerging markets such as Brazil and China will escape global re-coupling; vicious cycle of deflation in goods markets, labor markets, commodity markets, financial markets, corporate and household earnings, and aggregate demand; de-leveraging to reduce excess debt in municipalities, households and some firms; U.S. stock markets declining another 20-30%, bottoming fall 2009 at the earliest, then moving sideways for years post-recession if growth remains anemic as it did in Japan after its 1990s real estate and equities bust; U.S. unemployment rise to reach 8-9%; the demise of the shadow banking system.

According to Nouriel, USD assets, commodities, U.S. and international equities, housing, and the USD are quite risky right now. Seek safety in cash or cash-like instruments such as T-bills and bonds of safe, large governments. Though he believes the U.S. dollar will retain its reserve currency status for decades, its status will gradually erode.

Given the size of the expected contraction in private aggregate demand (likely to be about $450 billion in 2009 relative to 2008), Nouriel argues that a fiscal stimulus to the order of $300 billion minimum (and possibly as large as $400 billion) will be necessary to partially compensate for the sharp fall in private aggregate demand. And don’t miss Nouriel’s testimony before the Joint Economic Committee.

On the RGE Analyst’s EconoMonitor, Rachel Ziemba suggests that OPEC’s 1.5 million barrel production cut might not stabilize prices as the prospect of even weaker demand from a worsening global economic climate and the effects of wealth losses sink in. However, the combination of lower demand and credit contraction may sow the seeds for higher prices in the mid-term, even if they are not as high as those seen this year. “Can OPEC Stem the Downward trend?” by Rachel Ziemba.

Also on the RGE Analyst’s EconoMonitor:

* POST MORTEM – Lehman CDS Settlement: $360bn or $6bn? by Elisa Parisi-Capone

On the U.S. EconoMonitor, the commentators all warned that growing public awareness of the financial crisis can aggravate the situation via the Keynesian “paradox of thrift”, whereby self-fulfilling prophecies of economic doom produce panicked saving. Kotlikoff/Leamer and Fabius Maximus suggest ways to pull out of our death spiral towards a deep, long recession.

Fabius Maximus argues that it is probably too late to save Wall Street (the financial system), but we can still save Main Street (the real economy) from a deeper collapse. He urges Americans to vote and vote wisely, keeping in mind that there is no saving the economy without major government intervention. Read: “New recommendations to solve our financial crisis (and I admit that I was wrong)”.

Laurence J. Kotlikoff and Edward Leamer suggest a national sale to spur consumption and shorten and mitigate a recession. State governments would suspend or lower sales taxes and Federal government subsidies would cover the revenue losses. The rationale for a sale is that people need something to help them resist their pro-cyclical instinct to “hoard every dollar for fear it’s our last.” Read: “Running a National Sale”.

Chris Whalen’s interview with Ric Smith, president of a thriving community bank in Louisiana, reveals insights into the U.S. banking industry at its pivotal juncture between consolidation and competition. Smith makes a case for having smaller, simpler banks in addition to bigger ones. Though America needs big banks to compete in the global banking arena, big is not always better – especially when capital markets malfunction. When trust becomes a scarce commodity, market-financed big banks suffer while deposit-financed small banks attract deposits – the capital that enables them to ride out the financial storm. Read: “American Community Banks are Doing Fine”.

Michael Jaliman explains that foreclosures accelerate the falling prices for real estate and mortgage backed securities and are causing a vicious cycle of distress throughout the financial system. Mortgage foreclosures and write downs of mortgage debt deplete Tier 1 Capital which reduces bank lending. This leads to reduced business activity and increased unemployment which leads to further defaults and foreclosures. As foreclosures increase and neighborhoods deteriorate and unemployment rises, the damage will likely be more than economic. Check out his plan for a solution. Read: A “Win-Win Strategy to Mitigate Foreclosures with Minimal Taxpayer Exposure”.

Also on the U.S. EconoMonitor this week:

* The Goal of Increasing Home Ownership by Mark Thoma
* The Case for Public Sector Credit Rating Agencies by Roel Beetsma
* Further rate cuts needed by James Hamilton
* CRA and Fannie and Freddie as betes noire by Menzie Chinn

On the Emerging Markets Monitor, Arvind Subramanian describes the broad effect that the financial crisis is now having over nearly every emerging market economy. Read: “The Financial Crisis and Emerging Markets”. Italo Lombardi brings a useful descriptive analysis of the effects of financial crisis on the Latin American countries. Read: “Latin American CDS Spreads and Currencies: A Quick Descriptive Analysis”. Finally, Fabrizio Coricelli brings up a very interesting question: “How can a country with US$500 billion in foreign reserves get into a crisis? Russia 2008”.

On the Global Macro EconoMonitor, Desmond Lachman foresees: 1) A large part of the banking sector being partially nationalized by the end of this financial turmoil;2) The investment banks disappearing, and 3) The hedge funds and structured investment vehicles halving in size. Read: “A New Era for Global Banking”.

Jeffrey Sachs observes that while the U.S. downturn cannot be avoided, a steep recession in the U.S. and a few other countries need not push the world into recession. He estimates a 2% decline in global demand and proposes co-coordinated expansionary measures to put a floor on the global contraction. Read: “The best recipe for avoiding a global recession”.

Jeffrey Frankel emphasizes that changes at the multilateral level are needed to improve the international finance system. These might include expansion of currency swap arrangements and contingent credit lines for emerging markets, counter-cyclical bank capital requirements, coordinated global deposit guarantees, and increase in representation of important developing countries in international organizations. Read: “Restructuring the International Financial System: A New Bretton Woods?”.

Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Perry Mehrling and Alistair Milne argue that infusion of equity by the Treasury into banks will not stimulate lending to households and firms since bank lending and borrowing activity are being hit by the downgrade of securities used as collateral. Instead, they suggest that the government should sell insurance against the default on such securities. Read: “Recapitalizing the Banks is Not Enough”.

Also on the Global Macro EconoMonitor this week:

* The other part of the bailout: Pricing and evaluating the US and UK loan guarantees by Viral V. Acharya and Raghu Sundaram
* Pocketful of Multipliers (II): Options for Stimulus Packages by Menzie Chinn
* Artificial Boom by Josh Hendrickson
* The IMF as Global Fed by Models & Agents

On the Finance & Markets Monitor, Chris Whalen makes an argument for why the U.S. Treasury should seek to create and fund smaller banks, instead of recapitalizing the few mega banks currently in existence. Read: “Spread the Wealth: Bigger Is Not Better in Banking”. In another piece, the author discusses why it is imperative for regulators, market participants and politicians to come to a more refined and clearer view with regard to regulation of derivatives and financial markets in general. Read: “In the Fog of Volatility, the Notional Becomes Payable”.

Farooq Akram, Dagfinn Rime, and Lucio Sarno examine the microstructure of foreign exchange markets. They conclude that although short lived arbitrage opportunities arise, generally speaking arbitrage-free pricing does exist in the foreign exchange markets. Read: “Arbitrage in the foreign exchange market: Turning on the microscope”. Frank Heinemann proposes that the Fed should consider guaranteeing a bottom price for the S&P 500 index, in case stock prices continue to fall precipitously. Read: “Escaping from a Combined Liquidity Trap and Credit Crunch”.

Also on the Finance & Markets Monitor this week:

* Credit Derivatives, Crises, and Clearing Houses by Joel Hasbrouck
* Friends, Romans, Countrymen, Lend Me Your Ears by Rich Hartmann
* Race to Call the Bottom by Barry Ritholtz
* Retirement Planning in the Aftermath of the Crisis by Anthony Lynch
* Schroedinger’s cat revisited by Tim Price
* Financial Stability and the Fed by Mark Thoma
* CDS Too Risky for CME Trading, Key Members Say by Yves Smith

On the Asia EconoMonitor, Michael Pettis suggests that the reported losses on Citic Pacific’s bet on currency derivatives may be one of many. Their lack of transparency has kept us from knowing exactly what is happening, but lack of transparency protected US and European banks for only so long before that very lack of transparency became the problem itself. Read: “CITIC and risk management practices”.

He continues in this vein in “Bring on the new financial order and punish the old scoundrels”, warning that the reports of recent ‘unexpected financial losses’ from currency derivative hedges in China indicate more serious underlying problems in the various corporate and banking portfolios. Similarly he is skeptical about the ability of government policies to prop up the property sector.

Keiichiro Kobayashi compares the current financial crisis to that suffered by Japan, noting that both stemmed from changes in the prices of real estate that were used as collateral for bank lending. He suggests that a new "Financial System Stabilization Fund" or "World Dollar Stabilization Fund" with funds from emerging markets be created to stabilize key economies. Read: “Financial crisis management: Lessons from Japan’s failure”.

Also on the Asia EconoMonitor,

* Another Bad Day Dawns in Asia by Yves Smith
* Middle Kingdom Malaise? The Latest Chinese GDP Figures by Menzie Chinn
* Big Bad Banks are Back by Victor Shih

On the Latin America EconoMonitor, Nicolas Magud argues that Argentina may be experiencing the Tango effect. In order to find out what he means by that we recommend Magud's piece: “Two to Tango: your savings but my expenditures; and the re-coupling of the financial channel—or: the Tango Effect Returns?”. We then have two other extremely interesting pieces on the debate of social security nationalization in Argentina. The first is by Christopher Ecclestone, who argues that given the previous moves from the Argentina government the current nationalization does not come as a total surprise. Read: “An Inevitable Move”. The second piece comes from Andrew G. Biggs, where he explains the opposition the government is facing in regards to the nationalization of pensions. Read: “Argentina Attempts to Nationalize Personal Accounts System; Workers Object”.

The fact that Peru will issue a new 30-year maturity sovereign bond went almost unnoticed in the English press. In a nice piece, Ricardo Lago expounds on such themes and analyses the impact of such issuance in the Peruvian economy. Read: “Peru Unscathed”. Then, Walter Molano provides a very interesting economic outlook of Paraguay. Read: “ Paraguay: A River Runs Through It”.

Also on the Latin America EconoMonitor:

* The Brazilian Version of the Paulson Plan: Will It Work? by Vitoria Saddi

On the Europe EconoMonitor, Aurelio Maccario says the reality check of weakening growth is turning into the nightmare of recession in Europe. Consequently, the ECB and BOE are now both expected to front-load aggressive monetary easing, and Maccario provides updated rate forecasts. Read: “ECB and BOE: From reality check to nightmare”.

Meanwhile, Edward Hugh asks the question: “As Ukraine And Hungary Accept IMF Loans, Will Poland Be Next?”. He notes that concern has been growing over contagion effects in Eastern Europe after Hungary and Ukraine turned to the IMF for help. Specifically, he details what he describes as ‘mounting pressure on Poland’s financial system’, even though he sees Poland’s economy as stronger than others in the region.

Also on the Europe EconoMonitor,

* And So It Ends - Hungary's Government Announces Foreign Currency Loan Wind-up Package by Edward Hugh
* As Ukraine And Hungary Accept IMF Loans, Will Poland Be Next? by Edward Hugh
* Financial involution and evolution of economic patterns: Demise of leading banks and opportunities for the "Italian system" by Carlos Resta
* Spain and the G20 by Jaime Pozuelo-Monfort

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Cramer

Post  Jim on Thu Nov 13, 2008 2:49 am

Jim Cramer said today he thinks the price of gold is going to $650. He has said keep an eye on ADM, DE, CAT, and UNG.

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Whitehead sees slump worse than Depression, 86 year old former CEO of Goldman-Sachs retired under Reagan

Post  Shelby on Sat Nov 15, 2008 3:27 pm

http://www.reuters.com/article/Finance08/idUSTRE4AB7HT20081112

Whitehead sees slump worse than Depression
Wed Nov 12, 2008 3:50pm EST

By Joseph A. Giannone

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The economy faces a slump deeper than the Great Depression and a growing deficit threatens the credit of the United States itself, former Goldman Sachs chairman John Whitehead, said at the Reuters Global Finance Summit on Wednesday.

Whitehead, 86, said the prospect of worsening consumer credit woes combined with an overtaxed federal government make him fear that the current slump is far from over.

"I think it would be worse than the depression," Whitehead said. "We're talking about reducing the credit of the United States of America, which is the backbone of the economic system." Whitehead encountered plenty of crises during his 38 years at the investment banking firm and was a young boy during the 1930s.

Whitehead warned the country's financial strength is at risk due to the sweeping demand for tax relief and a long list of major government spending plans.

"I see nothing but large increases in the deficit, all of which are serving to decrease the credit standing of America," said Whitehead, who served as chairman of the Lower Manhattan Development Corp after the World Trade Center was destroyed during the September 11, 2001 attacks.

Whitehead, who helped make Goldman a top-tier Wall Street firm and led its international expansion, left in 1984 to become a deputy secretary of state under Ronald Reagan.

He warned that the country's record deficit is poised to balloon as the public calls on government for more support.

"Before I go to sleep at night, I wonder if tomorrow is the day Moody's and S&P will announce a downgrade of U.S. government bonds," he said. "Eventually U.S. government bonds would no longer be the triple-A credit that they've always been."

There are at least ten "trillion dollar problems," facing the United States, he said, including social security, expanding health insurance, rebuilding infrastructure and increased spending on green energy. At the same time, the public does not want to pay for it.

"The public is not prepared to increase taxes. Both parties were for reducing taxes, reducing income to government, and both parties favored a number of new programs -- all very costly and all done by the government," he said.

Large deficits can weaken the country's credit and increase its borrowing costs, which already constitute a significant part of funding to cover expenses. Whitehead said it could take "several years" for the current problems to be resolved.

Whitehead said he is speaking out on this topic because he is concerned no lawmakers are against these new spending programs and none will stand up and call for higher taxes.

"I just want to get people thinking about this, and to realize this is a road to disaster," said Whitehead. "I've always been a positive person and optimistic, but I don't see a solution here."

(For summit blog: http://summitnotebook.reuters.com/)

(For more on the Reuters Global Finance Summit, see [ID:nN10403323])

(Editing by Jeffrey Benkoe)

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Top Performing Forecaster Predicts Revolution, Food Riots, Tax Rebellions By 2012

Post  Shelby on Sat Nov 15, 2008 3:39 pm

(see above prior post also, that I made a few minutes before this one)

http://www.infowars.com/?p=5938



http://www.trendsresearch.com/gerald.html
http://www.trendsresearch.com/forecast.html (history of correct forecasts)

Celente Predicts Revolution, Food Riots, Tax Rebellions By 2012

Paul Joseph Watson
...
Thursday, November 13, 2008

The man who predicted the 1987 stock market crash and the fall of the Soviet Union is now forecasting revolution in America, food riots and tax rebellions - all within four years, while cautioning that putting food on the table will be a more pressing concern than buying Christmas gifts by 2012.

Gerald Celente, the CEO of Trends Research Institute, is renowned for his accuracy in predicting future world and economic events, which will send a chill down your spine considering what he told Fox News this week.

Celente says that by 2012 America will become an undeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts.

“We’re going to see the end of the retail Christmas….we’re going to see a fundamental shift take place….putting food on the table is going to be more important that putting gifts under the Christmas tree,” said Celente, adding that the situation would be “worse than the great depression”.

“America’s going to go through a transition the likes of which no one is prepared for,” said Celente, noting that people’s refusal to acknowledge that America was even in a recession highlights how big a problem denial is in being ready for the true scale of the crisis.

Celente, who successfully predicted the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis, the subprime mortgage collapse and the massive devaluation of the U.S. dollar, told UPI in November last year that the following year would be known as “The Panic of 2008,” adding that “giants (would) tumble to their deaths,” which is exactly what we have witnessed with the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and others. He also said that the dollar would eventually be devalued by as much as 90 per cent.

The consequence of what we have seen unfold this year would lead to a lowering in living standards, Celente predicted a year ago, which is also being borne out by plummeting retail sales figures.

The prospect of revolution was a concept echoed by a British Ministry of Defence report last year, which predicted...(click link to read more)...

http://www.infowars.com/?p=5938&cp=all#comments

Comment #6 wrote: Toma Says:
November 13th, 2008 at 10:44 am

Maybe the Mayans are right and shit does hit the fan by the Winter Solstice of December 21, 2012. They knew where the center of the Galaxy was in relation to the Earth many thousands of years ago and charted every major solar and lunar eclipse that has occured over the last thousand years. Why would their calendar which stretches billions of years into the past end abruptly in 2012.

I’m just sayin’

Comment #27 wrote:wingtip Says:
November 13th, 2008 at 11:25 am

Bush Family Purchases 100,000 Acre Ranch in Paraguay.

As calls for his possible war crimes trials to begin next year, President George W. Bush may be thinking that South America would make a fine place to retire.

At least two sources now report that Bush has purchased an isolated 100,000 acre ranch in Acuifero Guarani, Paraguay - a favored escape route for convicted Nazi war criminals following WWII.

Rumours of Mr Bush’s forays into South American real estate surfaced during a recent 10-day visit to the country by his daughter Jenna Bush. Little is known about her trip to Paraguay, although officially she travelled with the UN children’s agency Unicef to visit social projects. Photographers from the Paraguayan newspaper ABC Color tracked her down to one restaurant in Paraguay’s capital Asunción, where she was seen flanked by 10 security guards, and was also reported to have met Paraguay’s president, Nicanor Duarte, and the US ambassador to Paraguay, James Cason. Reports in sections of the Paraguayan media suggested she was sent on a family “mission” to tie up the land purchase in the “chaco”.

Comment #33 wrote:dtice Says:
November 13th, 2008 at 11:37 am

I got a vacuum sealer and a dehdrator - i’ve been doing bananas and apples (dry storage )and beef jerky ( to freeze). Also beans and rice i have been vacuum sealing away - it is a GREAT investment

Comment #110 wrote:WhiteRabbit Says:
November 13th, 2008 at 1:44 pm

US spec-ops get robot whispercopter kill fleet this month
Track this topic Print story Post comment Droid choppers can also carry passengers

By Lewis Page • Get more from this author

Posted in Government, 11th November 2008 13:51 GMT

Webcast: Building Applications for the 21st Century

The US Special Operations Command (SOCOM) secret military forces are receiving their first robotic whisper-mode helicopters, according to reports. The plan is for the you-never-saw-us-we-aren’t-even-here brigade to receive a ten-strong fleet of Boeing A160T “Hummingbird” droid kill-choppers, under an extended demonstration programme.

Black ops.
News of the A160T shipments came recently courtesy of Janes, who quoted Boeing’s John Groenenboom as saying that “deliveries are already underway”, and should be complete by the end of this month.

The A160T is unmanned, but that’s in many ways the least interesting thing about it. The new robo-chopper stands out more for its variable-speed rotor technology, which allows it to do things that other helicopters can’t.

An A160T can stay up without refuelling for 20 hours, for instance, and is able to hover without ground effect at much higher altitudes than other helicopters - up to 20,000 feet according to Boeing. Company execs also claim that it is “four times quieter” than an ordinary Bell 407 small copter.

Stealthy A160Ts could carry out a variety of different missions for the secret supertroopers of SOCOM. It can carry the “FORESTER” foliage-penetrating radar, to sniff out enemies of democracy lurking deep in the woods. It is also slated to lift the ARGUS-IS multiplex spyeye system, able to watch many suspect buildings, cars, people etc at once; rather than just one.

These and other surveillance payloads are to a large extent what the A160T was designed for, making special use of its long endurance and high hover capabilities. However, there will of course be an option to arm it with laser-guided Hellfire missiles, Viper Strike smartglider minibombs or what have you. The robocopter will also be able to drop off loads of supplies - up to 1,000lb - to SOCOM SEALs, Green Berets, Force-Recon types etc operating deep in enemy territory.

There may even be an option for the crewless chopper to carry passengers, perhaps wounded operatives or shot-down aviators in need of urgent evacuation.

The robotic whisper-whirlybird was, like so many of America’s more avant-garde innovations, developed by the maverick military edge-bleed experts at DARPA. If the variable-speed copters turn out as well as has been claimed, the technology - like IP networking, another DARPA creation - might find wider application in coming years. The rotorcraft world might soon, erm, beat a path to DARPA’s door. ®

far as i know theres no woods in the middle east. so i wonder who these will be for? hmmmmmmm

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The controllers will run out of tricks

Post  Jeremy on Wed Nov 19, 2008 8:37 pm

Wachovia Securities won't broker precious metals anymore

Submitted by cpowell on 12:01PM ET Wednesday, November 19, 2008. Section: Daily Dispatches
3p ET Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Wachovia Securities this month alerted its brokers and clients that it no longer would purchase precious metals for brokerage accounts, only shares in precious metals exchange-traded funds. In an explanation given to its brokers, Wachovia said the precious metals markets "are illiquid with wide bid/ask spreads and minimal transparency."

Wachovia's letter informing clients of this change is appended, along with an elaboration given to the firm's brokers.

This implies that real metal is awfully hard to get these days, and maybe that some brokerages would prefer that their clients not get it.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

Wachovia Securities Letter to Clients

Dear [Client Name]:

Wachovia Securities strives to provide clients with the best investment options and products. Recent development of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) designed to mirror various precious metals provide a more efficient, transparent, and convenient method to gain exposure to this asset class.

Consequently, Wachovia Securities will discontinue opening new precious-metals positions in brokerage accounts effective Jan. 1, 2009.

If you have an existing precious-metal position in your account, you do not have to close your positions; furthermore, you will be able to hold the position in your account and may close that position at your
convenience.

If you have questions regarding this matter, feel free to contact me.

Sincerely,

[Financial Advisor's Name]
[Compliance-approved Title]

* * *

Exchange traded funds (ETFs) are sold by prospectus. Please consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing. The prospectus, which contains this and other information, can be obtained by calling your Financial Advisor. Read it carefully before you invest.

Exchange Traded Funds seek investment results that, before expenses, generally correspond to the price and yield of a particular index. There is no assurance that the price and yield performance of the index can be fully matched.

Buying gold, silver, platinum, or palladium allows for a source of diversification for those sophisticated persons who wish to add precious metals to their portfolios and who are prepared to assume the risks inherent in the bullion market. Any bullion or coin purchase represents a transaction in a non-income-producing commodity and is highly speculative. Therefore, precious metals should not represent a significant portion of an individual's portfolio.

* * *

Wachovia Securities Notice to its Brokers

Below are some talking points for you to use in discussing this with your clients:

Reasons for change:

-- The markets are illiquid with wide bid/ask spreads and minimal transparency.

-- The quoted markets may not always reflect the value of spot price of the underlying metal in the futures market.

-- Recent delivery times have frequently exceeded four weeks.

-- Precious metals should be considered more akin to collectables such as stamps and coins, etc.

Alternatives for the client (e.g.,ETFs):

-- ETFs are sold by prospectus and disclose charges, physical metal holdings, and historical pricing.

-- ETF prices are widely disseminated to the public and typically have narrower spreads than the physical.

-- ETFs may track more closely to the spot price for the underlying metal.

* * *

All of their tricks will only buy time

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Re: Market Comments & News

Post  jack on Fri Nov 21, 2008 6:41 am

I propose something that I have always forgot to mention. I have often thought the gold market has been utilized as a balance sheet exchange device for entities. Whether, it be currency or other. This idea might be trackable through daily currency values, bonds, trrasuries. It would take a little time to match any correlation especially during times of world duress. But, it might be there. I don't know if anyone has brought this to attention.

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SEC caused liquidation of stocks, by restricting short selling

Post  Shelby on Tue Dec 02, 2008 5:03 pm

Listen to Marc Faber around the 4 min point forward:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Th4yIW521M8&feature=related

When the Fed restricted short selling, then speculators sold their LONG positions, because they could no longer hedge them with offsetting short positions.

Also we have a Perfect Storm with capital gains redemptions from 2001 bottom:

http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/stocks-f2/junior-mining-companies-t15.htm#437

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COMEX default

Post  silberruecken on Tue Dec 02, 2008 6:35 pm

http://meltdown2011.wordpress.com/2008/11/29/vaporize-comex-countdown/

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

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Fed Refuses to Disclose Recipients of $2 Trillion

Post  Shelby on Sat Dec 13, 2008 12:50 pm

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/fed-refuses-disclose-recipients-2-trillion-lending/10144

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Thoughtful analyst

Post  Shelby on Sat Dec 13, 2008 8:01 pm

Some of you may not be aware of this analyst:

http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/article.asp?id=mwo121208
http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/archive.asp
http://www.johnmauldin.com/

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All bad mortgages only $1 trillion, where did the other $7.5 trillion go?

Post  Shelby on Mon Dec 15, 2008 9:17 pm

I didn't verify this, just sharing:

http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/shepherd/2008/1215.html

...So a total of $975 Billlion Dollars would be required as an absolute maximum to bail out every single foreclosed mortgage in America.
So why do we have an $8.5 trillion Dollar solution to solve a $975 Billion Dollar problem?...

The insiders set up the derivatives to fail, then the proceeds (they are on the short side of the trade) get paid out to them, as these are bailed out by the govt!! Amazing!! So obvious!!

And don't you think those insiders will be buying up everything once they are done converting those $600 trillion derivatives to Treasuries which the FED will then monetize for them in near future.

Can you say HYPERINFLATION? Gold & silver to the moon (which is not necessarily a good thing, means everyone else will be angry and hungry).

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Re: Market Comments & News

Post  Jeremy on Tue Dec 16, 2008 1:31 am

If I understand correctly what was said in the last post, that is exactly what I believe is/has happened.

The "bets" were made with institutions "to big to fail". The money was funneled through the "to big to fail"

dead institutions to pay whomever they choose. Under the auspices of paying out there obligation to the

swap agreement of course. Anyone that is playing this game can afford to take token losses elsewhere when

you are talking about these sorts of sums that are being paid out. Sick and brilliant at the same time.

How long will the freshly created "money" sit? I think they are systematically acquiring things of real value.

I'm not sure that they will allow hyperinflation yet and that depends how concentrated the fresh money is.

Why not let "deflation" run its course? Like Jefferson said:
first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.
Especially when you are freshly cashed up!!



Another thing...we are not seeing all of the new money being funneled in this fashion. It is not just the $2trillion.

Swaps that will never be repaid. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/currencyswap.asp?viewed=1

Look at all of the concentration of gold happening. http://www.exchangetradedgold.com/index.php

If you really want to get crazy you could say that it looks as if there is an outpost in each jurisdiction to

to concentrate then confiscate the gold. New ones are popping up all the time.






http://www.augustreview.com/issues/globalization/trilateral_plan_to_corner_world_gold_market?_20081209107/http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/currencyswap.asp?viewed=1Swaps

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McAlvany

Post  Shelby on Wed Dec 17, 2008 6:26 pm

Excellent gold vs. silver commentary, also makes the point that people don't get productive again until there is a world war:
http://www.mcalvany.com/podcast/wp-content/uploads/ica2008-1217.mp3

I do not agree put metals in safety deposit box. Never put your metal in a fractional reserve banking institution, as they are all inherently bankrupt.

http://www.mcalvany.com/podcast/wp-content/uploads/ica2008-0409.mp3
http://www.mcalvany.com/podcast/?cat=1

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2009 and financial survival

Post  Jim on Tue Dec 30, 2008 4:54 am

I respect Wiegand's opinions. It could get nasty:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wiegand/dec222008.html

And, remember Exter's pyramid. One wants to be at the bottom, in silver and gold, which have been used as money for over 6,000 years:

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Inverse_pyramid_of_John_Exter.png

http://search.comcast.net/search?cat=Web&con=ie7&q=exters+pyramid

Then, there's Jim Willie CB, whose opinions I respect. Jim Willie moved to Costa Rica three years ago to avoid what he thinks is coming:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/willie/dec292008.html

Blessings, and all the best in 2009.

Jim

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We are headed into the tempest, get prepared...

Post  Shelby on Wed Dec 31, 2008 3:36 am

Yes those analysts views are in line with possibility imo.

Nice start of a newsletter from Hommel (someone emailed this to me):

http://silverstockreport.com/2008/boat.html

But you know he can't make a dent in the problem with his current strategy. Coins can not substitute for world fiat liquidity. Coins may help a few people do some subsistence local barter. But 200,000+oz of silver? What does Hommel think he is going to stand on his mountain with his shotgun?

We are headed for a tempest of humility. Those who engage people in large numbers and do real things, I think they will be most in harmony with Gods work during this time. This means get out of the armchair and get out into the real world.

For example, those who are retailers, might want to consider opening a shop to buy silver & gold jewelry below market price of melt as desperate people will be dumping their jewelry, then resell at melt. But none of this really seems like a viable plan. Seems to me viable plans will either involve joining the cabal system in what ever role they allow for you, or you go completely offgrid or you find someway to build your own small society and try to get your economies-of-scale up for most things yuo can produce yourself.

It is really more of religious lifestyle issue now. We all have to choose which side of the fence we will be on. As I see it, Hommel is forcing himself to be inside the cabal system. I am sure he doesn't see it that way, and he won't realize it until it is too late.

God bless him and all of you.

If there is anything I can do, please do not hesistate to ask. I am a reasonable man.

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Re: Market Comments & News

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