Changing World Order

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Founder of Paypal and Tesla Motors on avoiding Apocalypse

Post  Shelby on Fri Sep 10, 2010 11:58 am

Peter Thiel describes exactly that paper (fiat) money is no longer the capital of globalization...my plans for using globalization technology to defeat the Apocalypse fits perfectly afaics.

http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/5646

Peter Thiel, Founder of Paypal and Tesla Motors wrote:...More generally, apocalyptic thinking appears to have no place in the world of money. For if the doomsday predictions are fulfilled and the world does come to an end, then all the money in the world — even if it be in the form of gold coins or pieces of silver, stored in a locked chest in the most remote corner of the planet — would prove of no value, because there would be nothing left to buy or sell. Apocalyptic investors will miss great opportunities if there is no apocalypse, but ultimately they will end up with nothing when the apocalypse arrives. Heads or tails, they lose...

...At the same time, the current round of globalization has reached a point equal to or greater than past cycles. As measured by the percentage of tradable gdp, or the number of people who live in countries different from their place of birth, or even more abstractly, the connectivity of the world, we stand at a level of globalization that compares with the previous peak year of 1913...

...The real alternative to good globalization is world war...such a war would be apocalyptic in the twenty-first century. Because there is not much time left, the Great Boom, taken as a whole, either is not a bubble at all, or it is the final and greatest bubble in history.

But because we do not know how our story of globalization will end, we do not yet know which it is. Let us return to our thought experiment...

...If the preceding line of analysis is correct, then the extreme valuations of recent times may be an indirect measure of the narrowness of the path set before us. Thus, to take but one recent example, in 1999 investors would not have risked as much on internet stocks if they still believed that there might be a future anywhere else...

...the subprime housing boom in the United States is not simply the result of extreme optimism about the prospects for housing, but also a reflection of the brutal fact that tens of millions are approaching retirement in an actuarially bankrupt state. In effect, the two choices are: 1) continue on the present course to certain destitution in old age; or 2) roll the dice on the housing boom as the last chance to build wealth, and hope against hope that one gets out in time...

...None of the foregoing detracts from the earlier claim that the greatest investments of our time remain those most highly levered to genuine globalization. But because the line between good and bad (or no) globalization is very thin, catastrophic approximations abound. The difficulty of the challenge can be illustrated by considering three related examples: the “China bubble,” the “Web 2.0 bubble,” and the “hedge fund bubble,” which relate to the globalization of labor, technology, and finance, respectively, and are properly seen as contemporary facets of the Great Boom. They are the dark matter that is reshaping the human world — and that may hopefully counteract the dark energy that is making things fall apart...

...However that may be, there is no good scenario for the world in which China fails. The short-term consequences of such a failure would include a lack of cheap capital from a Chinese savings glut; fewer cheap goods from China; massive political unrest within China; and deep recessions throughout East Asia and most emerging markets...

...outsiders need to understand that China is controlled for the benefit of insiders. The insiders know when to sell, and so one would expect the businesses that have been made available to the outside world systematically to underperform those ventures still controlled by card-carrying members of the Chinese Communist Party. “China” [the part available to outsiders] will underperform China, and a “China” bubble exists to the extent that investors underestimate the degree of this underperformance...

... “China” as a financial economy is sustained by the absence of globalization — in particular, by the enormous amounts of capital trapped within China’s borders that must either suffer slow death from inflation (now running higher than Chinese bank deposit rates) or brave the acute sense of vertigo of the elevated stock market. Because the free convertibility of the renminbi would dampen equity speculation, a long “China” position is not a forecast that financial globalization will succeed, but rather a bet that its internal contradictions will persist...

...One must not forget that the U.S. military funded the internet as a communications platform to survive even a limited nuclear war...

...Virtually no Web 2.0 companies have sold stock to the public through ipos. If one desired to deploy substantial capital into the next wave of internet businesses, this would prove almost impossible to do...

...A more subtle “technology” bubble may be occurring this time. A large number of large capitalization companies are effectively short innovation: companies such as Microsoft, Dell, ibm, Cisco, hp, and others. They benefit by modest changes to the status quo, but are threatened by massive innovation...

...As globalization proceeds apace, the decisive unsolved problem concerns the issue of security... [did he read my mind!!! also this and this]...

...difference between a hedge fund and a “hedge fund” is this: a hedge fund seeks to allocate capital from less efficient uses to more efficient uses; a “hedge fund” seeks trading strategies...

...What is truly frightening about the twenty-first century is not merely that there exists a dangerous dimension to our time, but rather the unwillingness of the best and brightest to try and make any sense of this larger dimension...

... In every possible future, all of today’s [true] bubbles [the ones he put in quotation marks above] will burst, and their ideological scaffolding will prove to be but lint in the winds of history...

...the Fed’s gambit entails several potentially catastrophic trade-offs, chief among them the revival of inflation. Whatever may be said of the soundness of the Fed’s policy in the faltering United States, loose monetary conditions are not appropriate for the near-runaway economies of other nations with dollar-linked economies, notably China... At some point, the tensions caused by wild inflation, collapsing currency accords, and expensive oil will resolve, but only the most deluded Pollyannas could believe the result will be an increase in global harmony and integration...

...Despite all this, the world may yet resume the globalist path. The narrative of the past four centuries has not been one of continuous progress, but strewn beneath the stories of cupidity and strife there lies the story of the powerful impulse toward globalization and of the transformational effects of technology...

29 Internet businesses are essentially global, and for this reason successful internet businesses involve a winner-take-all dynamic that is extreme even by the standards of the technology industry. As an investor or entrepreneur, one could do worse than to remember the motivational advice from Glengarry Glen Ross: “As you all know, first prize is a Cadillac El Dorado. Anybody want to see second prize? Second prize is a set of steak knives. Third prize is you ’re fired.”

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My termites theory of how good globalization will play out

Post  Shelby on Sat Sep 11, 2010 12:37 am

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=2534#comment-277956

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Good globalization

Post  Shelby on Sun Sep 12, 2010 3:09 am

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article20327.html#comment94581

Shelby wrote:Forrest Lane, the west has been and still is much more open to free market capital flow than the developing world, which is the fundamental reason for the current imbalances, the resultant imbalances which are now driving the west back towards socialism and capital restriction. I urge you to read Peter Thiel's (Paypal founder) point that developing world's capital is walled off and available to the insiders (and this is my observation also while I live in Philippines):

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=2534#comment-277956 (click sub-link to "my" aka Jocelyns's summary)

So I don't expect the power players in the developing world to open their arms to our capital, rather they will spit us back to the den of socialism vipers in our own countries (there are signs this is underway, read thaivisa.com).

The basic challenge of good globalization is to break down the barriers that are causing so much excess capital to lay idle. Some think (see the Protocols of Learned Elders of Zion) that the TPTB believe the only way to accomplish this is to have the most power at the center to tame the middle men ( http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22404.html ), whereas some of us who believe in good globalization, think that a proliferation of technology freedom can tunnel past the middle man in ways they can not control. Some allege that the TPTB's version of NWO is one of centralized control and ultimate failure (see the Georgia Guidestones). Freedom's version of NWO is a good globalization where capital becomes free to move and a "billion differentiated flowers can bloom and interact". TPTB controlled mass media, apparently preach that complexity is caused by more possibilities and interactions (because they believe these are barriers to central control and elimination of middle men inefficiency), e.g. see Global Warming aka Climategate hoax; whereas, I explained recently that complexity is precisely the opposite:

http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/economics-f4/changing-world-order-t32-90.htm#3527

But remember this. TPTB control their sphere, and to the extent that humanity still uses fiat, the fiat controllers dictate which asset classes are profitably convertible to fiat utility. As Peter Thiel suggests, the gate forward is narrow but opens wide on the other side like an hour glass. May the most important bits of sand squeeze through first.


Last edited by Shelby on Sun Sep 12, 2010 6:35 am; edited 2 times in total

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Propaganda vs. Evolution

Post  Shelby on Sun Sep 12, 2010 4:20 am

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22098.html#comment94393

Shelby wrote:Forrest Lane, thanks for the feedback.

Ah yes, my incomplete Theory of Everything (TOE):

http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/technology-f8/theory-of-everthing-t124.htm
http://www.coolpage.com/commentary/economic/shelby/Mass-Entropy_Equivalence.html

I interpret your basic premise is that evolution has stopped functioning, because you assert that men are incapable of meaningful diversity, and I know that science says diversity is required for evolution to anneal (mutate in a meaningful direction):

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=2491#comment-276759
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=2507#comment-277051

Polls show majority of Americans are against the Iraq war. A significant minority is aware of million+ deaths in Iraq ( http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/deathcount/explanation ), 9-11, etc.. I have explained that even in something as simple as smartphones, customer choice is thwarted by oligarchy:

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=2534#comment-277956 (Jocelyn is me)

Why is it that the reality you think exists is different from the reality that exists? Why is that there is some amount of the mass action that you allege? What exactly is obscuring the awareness of both the real diversity that exists and encouraging mass action? And what is the weapon that nature is using to destroy that so that evolution will continue?

Before I tell you the obvious answer, let me point out that nature (evolution) routes around less diverse structures. Coase's Theorem states this. The 1856 2nd law of thermodynamics states this ( http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=2528#comment-277872 ). And the link I gave above shows that nature always favors more diversity so evolution can anneal meaninfully.

The obvious answer is that a few families (an oligarchy, http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22404.html ) control all major media of their world! And nature's weapon is the internet! The major newspapers and TV stations are dying ( http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=2507#comment-277125 ).

Those who continue to stay vested in the old order ( http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article21650.html ), are not going to fit through the narrow gate to good globalization, as I explained in my reply to your comment at my “End Game, Gold Investors Will be Destroyed” article:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article20327.html

It is not that humans are good or bad, or that a good deed can even be defined non-arbitrarily. What matters is that every *uncorrelated* (arising out of free will, not mass media mind programming) deed is a mutation for evolution, and evolution (the trend of the universe) won't tolerate obstruction. It is not that I won't allow a centralized force to block evolution, it is that evolution itself won't allow it.

I leave you with an alleged Rockefeller quote at a Bilderberg meeting at turn of the 21st century:

"We are grateful to the Washington Post, The New York Times, Time Magazine and other great publications whose directors have attended our meetings and respected their promises of discretion for almost forty years."

"It would have been impossible for us to develop our plan for the world if we had been subjected to the lights of publicity during those years. But, the world is now more sophisticated and prepared to march towards a world government. The supranational sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the national auto-determination practiced in past centuries."

Don't you see that technology is obliterating the ability of TPTB to keep the light from being shined on their fraud? The humans are poised to route around TPTB as often as technology offers them such choices.

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Knowledge is the new money?

Post  Shelby on Sun Sep 12, 2010 5:13 am

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=2534#comment-278086

Shelby aka Jocelyn wrote:@Rich Rostrom
> I expect an employer to treat an employee as they say they are going to. Or do you think honesty is wasted on the lower classes?

You have conflicting expectations.

Promises, insurance, and contracts are innately dishonest, because no human controls the future. Freedom and prosperity is the result of maximizing entropy, which is the antithesis of (the illusion of) control, aka good globalization.

Pay daily or immediately when the work is rendered, do not promise to pay in the future for work performed today.

Knowledge (training) in the information economy means the employee owns his capital (it travels with its owner), and this trumps any other form of money (abstract store of capital). In short, knowledge is the new money (but not yet a currency, but I have an idea about changing that).

The most honesty is for your cousin to face up to his/her options today and choose the wisest direction, not the innately dishonest one. We humans trap ourselves because we (especially westerners) believe in the fantasy of control and planned outcomes. Sorry to say, your cousin has no one to blame but him/herself. I say that out of empathy hoping to suggest a better outcome, not to be callous.

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Fiat == ignorance, true capital is knowledge

Post  Shelby on Sun Sep 12, 2010 7:06 am

One of my greatest posts ever I think:

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=2539#comment-278099

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Bankrupting the world's food production

Post  Shelby on Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:13 pm

I now understand how the elite plan to take over the world's food production:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/7997910/The-backlash-begins-against-the-world-landgrab.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/india/5673437/India-joins-neocolonial-rush-for-Africas-land-and-labour.html

"If, for example, China's land purchases in Africa result in more efficient, mechanised farming displacing subsistence farming, and in higher yields feeding not only the local population but providing valuable exports to China, that should be a good thing."

It should be, but the locals are much more likely to see all the food produced, look at their meagre wages (although significantly higher than when they were subsistance farmers) and scream "colonial oppression" followed by "nationalise"

What is happening is that fiat capital (not real human capital, but the liar version of it...see my prior post for more on that) is being focused in speculation on land. The absentee landlords will eventually run afoul of the impoverished masses, who will at some point nationalize the land, giving control of the land to the elite who control the govt through the control of the money.

This is an example of the mis-allocation of capital that is accumulating and will render us into a bad globalization NWO hell, if the good globalization can't break it soon enough.

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Harmonizing Cuba

Post  Shelby on Wed Sep 15, 2010 6:03 pm

It is all planned as way to bring the north american union into harmonization. They bring USA closer to socialism, and bring Cuba up so they will be at same level of socialism. This is what is happening with China also.

>
> Cuba Lays Off 500,000: 'Major Shift' to a Free Market?
> http://www.theatlanticwire.com/opinions/view/opinion/Cuba-Lays-Off-500000-Major-Shift-to-a-Free-Market-5018
>
> Fidel: 'Cuban Model Doesn't Even Work For Us Anymore'
> http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2010/09/fidel-cuban-model-doesnt-even-work-for-us-anymore/62602

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Hillary Clinton would "have a heart attack"

Post  Shelby on Fri Sep 17, 2010 8:17 pm

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/05/wikileaks-insurance-file-_n_672094.html

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Peter Thiel 40+ to 190+ countries since 1945

Post  Shelby on Sat Sep 18, 2010 8:34 pm

The # of countries is increasing, the NWO is failing? But the countries are weaker.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/digitalrevolution/2009/10/rushes-sequences-peter-thiel-i.shtml

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Howdy Shelby....

Post  SRSrocco on Sun Sep 19, 2010 6:26 pm

CAN YOU SEE ME HERE?



Just wanted to say HELLO. Looks like you have ignored me at the SILVERSTOCKFORUM. Gosh...you really know how to hurt someone (hehe).

Anyhow....keep a STIFF UPPERLIP...and don't take any wooden nickels.

best regards,

ribbit...ribbit.




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Demographic future of world

Post  Shelby on Fri Sep 24, 2010 10:53 pm

Regarding China's gender imbalance, maybe the 24 million extra young males can go along for the resource acquisitions in Africa, hehe. Cambodia, Laos, and Philippines will be other sources (my social network!!!) Some indication the gender problem in China may be overblown.

Notice that any place the Europeans take over is destroyed demographically:



http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=2556&cpage=9#comment-279884

Shelby aka Jocelyn wrote:My last reply to this thread. Population pyramids, click country then age distribution.

> If there is more “currency/gold” and less “work” then the price of work will rise

Refer again to stocks-to-flows ratio being lowest for gold.

> Swedish, German, or French socialist countries breaking down soon

Allow 10 years to absorb inexorable PIIGS debt-mill, while labor force shrinks.

Immigration is limited due to cultural resistance beyond an incremental level. Besides, afaics (at least in USA so far) the immigrants learn to game the social system and bring their parents in, adding 2 more retirees per additional labor force producer. Typically the immigrants siphon capital to their origin countries too, which is good from an overall free market perspective, but not a net savoir for the western demographic problem.

My quick guesstimate from population pyramid charts, France/Germany will lose roughly 1.2/5 million (2/6% of total population, unknown % of workforce) in the working age bracket over next 10 years. Selective immigration might be a viable solution for France?

A Tale Of Two Population Pyramids (2009)

Population of EU looks more like Germany than France:

http://www.ined.fr/en/everything_about_population/graph_month/age_pyramid/ (note 2003 so add 7 years around working age retiree bracket)

Factor in the accelerating debt load of more retirees and less workers. Actuarial unfunded liabilities in this demographic situation are an iceberg, so any current cash or non-demographically compiled actuarial estimates are not meaningful when talking about the coming decade for the socialized EU.

I hope reduction of the retiree population is not adopted as the solution for EU.

Europe is in big trouble compared to the USA looks much better demographically and has enough X-gens coming into workforce to replace the boomers. The USA problem is the level of debt and unfunded promises for the boomers. The X-gens are numerous enough to put the boomer expectations out-to-pasture eventually to solve this problem, perhaps around end of this decade.

http://www.nationmaster.com/country/us-united-states/Age-_distribution

Japan started losing massively 5 years ago, and this is continuing but decelerating until end of decade when it accelerates again peaking in 2035. Korea starts losing in 10 years. India is the big positive exception. Africa has positive demographics but afaik insufficient educational development to be viable quickly.

In past 5 years, China had on the order of 40 - 60 million (3 - 6% of total population, unknown % of workforce) increase in the workforce age bracket (age 20 - 60), which explains their recent aggressive mercantilism currency peg. Starting in about 10 - 15 years, will lose that within 10 ten years, then stabilize for 10 years, then that much again over ensuing 10 years. China has 4% gender imbalance age 20 below, with millions of males without a potential female mate.

http://www.nationmaster.com/country/ch/Age_distribution
http://www.ats.agr.gc.ca/asi/4063-eng.htm#II (shows gender problem more accurately)

Afaics, the information economy (X-gens) will detach from the nation/social state, and become the new growth model. Afaics, technology is accelerating as the physical sciences trend (nanotech, biotech, EE, quantum physics, etc) significantly towards computer science, and thus the socialized dead weight will be cast off technologically (Moore's law moving too fast for demographics). I think counting net-worth in fiat digits doesn't measure how fast net-worth is shrinking in "knowledge digits" (what fiat will buy in knowledge). Capital requirements are decreasing (e.g. $200,000 initial funding for Facebook).

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Changing world population rankings

Post  Shelby on Sat Sep 25, 2010 1:47 am

You may want to read this 2005 book (the movie for it previews Sept 30) and read Ray Kurzweil's blog:

http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-singularity-is-near
http://www.kurzweilai.net/blog


http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/peo_pop-people-population

2008:

Code:
#    1     China:      1,330,044,544    2008    
#    2     India:      1,147,995,904    2008    
#    3     United States:   303,824,640    2008    
#    4     Indonesia:   237,512,352    2008    
#    5     Brazil:      196,342,592    2008    
#    6     Pakistan:   172,800,048    2008    
#    7     Bangladesh:   153,546,896    2008    
#    8     Nigeria:   146,255,312    2008    
#    9     Russia:      140,702,096    2008    
#    10     Japan:      127,288,416    2008    
#    11     Mexico:      109,955,400    2008    
#    12     Philippines:   96,061,680    2008    
#    13     Vietnam:   86,116,560    2008    
#    14     Ethiopia:   82,544,840    2008    
#    15     Germany:   82,369,552    2008    
#    16     Egypt:      81,713,520    2008    
#    17     Turkey:      71,892,808    2008    
#    18     Congo:      66,514,504    2008    
#    19     Iran:      65,875,224    2008    
#    20     Thailand:   65,493,296    2008


My calculations for 2030 projected based on current birth rates and/or http://esa.un.org/UNPP/, which ever appeared more in line with known reality as of 2008 above:

Code:
#    1     India:      1,500 million
#    2     China:      1,500 million
#    3     United States:   369 million
#    4     Indonesia:   307 million
#    5     Pakistan:   267 million
#    6     Brazil:      257 million
#    7     Bangladesh:   239 million
#    8     Nigeria:   227 million
#    9     Ethiopia:   163 million
#    10     Philippines:   148 million
#    11     Mexico:      141 million
#    12     Congo:      134 million
#    13     Russia:      122 million
#    14     Japan:      112 million   
#    15     Egypt:      111 million
#    16     Vietnam:   107 million
#    17     Turkey:      95 million
#    18     Iran:      80 million
#    19     Thailand:   75 million
#    20     Germany:   74 million

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tariffs will cause severe rationing

Post  Shelby on Fri Oct 01, 2010 10:29 pm

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23142.html#comment95149

Shelby wrote:Not what we say, but do

Rick, the western countries' actions mean they want (or are hopelessly conflicted) the Yuan peg, irregardless of what they say:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23054.html#comment95070

Besides, more centralized barriers (e.g. tariffs) is the worst possible thing we could do (so I expect we will):

http://financialsense.com/contributors/shelby-moore/perpetual-deflation-causes-inflation

You will be so delighted until the reality I describe above shows you that your tariffs force the world into deeper rationing (which causes war usually).


Last edited by Shelby on Sun Oct 03, 2010 7:12 am; edited 1 time in total

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coming trade wars

Post  Shelby on Sat Oct 02, 2010 12:33 am

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23142.html#comment95152

Shelby wrote:Apologies for successive comments, but I just came across some analysis very relevant to this article and Rick's comment and my counter-point.

A person I often agree with, the monetary PhD scientist Antal Fekete has postulated that the Yuan is strong:

http://financialsense.com/contributors/antal-fekete/the-donkey-in-the-china-shop

But the reason that I disagree with him is very relevant to why tariffs do not work.

The centralization of fitness is always a weakness. Maximum annealing to optimum fitness only occurs with a free market of individual trials. I am sure Dr. Fekete understands why I say, this is why only gold is money.

For the specific weaknesses of China's centralized economic and monetary policy, read my recent article linked in my prior comment above.

Note I recently wrote a scholarly research paper about the theory of annealing fitness and free markets:

http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/knowledge-f9/book-ultimate-truth-chapter-6-math-proves-go-forth-multiply-t159-15.htm#3640

That research derives or fits into a theory of the universe that I have proposed as a way to unify Einstein's General Relativity and Quantum Mechanics (Quantum Information):

http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/technology-f8/theory-of-everthing-t124.htm#3681

(note I am planning to study "Q-Orders" as potential self-similarity case of "frequency" in my theory)

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23142.html#comment95156

Shelby wrote:masses fool themselves

Rick, so you are agreeing that only in the free market, do the masses each get to express their independent opinion by being free to trade with whom ever they wish?

Because obviously you have noticed that pooling (ahem your "polling" of) opinions ignores the opinion of each individual.

And in case you didn't notice what you pointed out, yes the majority opinion (since Perot in 1992 at least) was "no free trade", and that is exactly what we got. The Yuan peg is not free trade (individuals free to trade with individuals), it is managed trade through a funnel of the Communist Party control over their central bank and exchange rate.

Glad you are coming to your senses (even if you didn't see your own point).

So you still going to advocate more oppression of the individuals via your tariffs and play right into the plans of the oligarchy? Of course you will, as the majority will too, as they always have. More examples:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article21650.html

I sincerely hope you finally get my point. Socialism is not the solution, it is precisely what is the problem. Tariffs = socialism.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23142.html#comment95181

Shelby wrote:who is oppressing?

Rick, did you forget what I showed in the links of my first comment on this page?

China would be unable to enforce a Yuan peg without our western governments being complicit as they are.

China allows their citizens to obtain passports, but the western countries won't give them even tourist visas if they are not very wealthy.

If our governments were truely sincere about ending the Yuan peg, they could do it in a very free market way, which would also end the real estate crisis too.

They could simply offer immigrant (or just visitors) visas to any Chinese willing to bring their savings to USA and buy or invest in a home or time-share.

Do you think with that offer, that millions of Chinese would put up with their own government blocking the migration out of the country with their savings (in form of gold or Yuan or what ever)?

Perhaps what you don't seem to understand is that afaik one of the main reasons China can maintain the Yuan peg, is because the middle class is not trying to bring large sums out of the country, because they have no place to go with that money. There is no direct internal political pressure against the Yuan peg, because our governments are not giving the Chinese any ability to migrate or visit to invest. There is indirect internal pressure on the Yuan peg, e.g. wage strikes, but the Chinese do not understand that their low wages are due to Yuan peg.

The Communist Party is not the most oppressive-- they opened the exit door, but our governments did not open the entry door.

With tariffs you will simply make goods more expensive for Americans and transfer their money to the Obama government to further waste on increasing the size of government. You won't stop the Yuan peg that way, nor will you bring back manufacturing businesses that have < 1% profit margins. What you do not seem to understand is that across the board tariffs simply raise the cost of everything at least in the medium-term, so it doesn't help us compete on price at all, it just steals from ourselves and gives it to people who don't work and feed off the government. And in the long-term, it causes our competitive companies to become lazy and fat, because there is no way to perfectly target tariffs.

No matter how you analyze it, any form of centralized decision making always causes non-optimum fitness over the long-term. In this aspect Nadeem is wrong to say that China is not socialist still-- they just aren't as socialist as we westerners are in many metrics.

In short, the whole world is moving towards socialism, and the fundamental cause is the culture of usury and future contracts:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article21650.html

I urge you to look at the global net birth rate chart and observe that every where that culture is prevalent, the net birth rate is incredibly low and such that their economies can not survive the future demographic implosion:

http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/economics-f4/changing-world-order-t32-105.htm#3692

That culture where men think they can control nature and promise the future, is going to destroy them, just as was promised in 1 Samuel 8. It is simply a mathematical fact of entropy (universe trending to maximum disorder).

I don't expect many people to understand that. It is over their science and mathematics head.

We are oppressing, especially we westerners and our "man is in control" culture.

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How the socialism of WW1 took away the power to create money from the people

Post  Shelby on Sun Oct 10, 2010 9:55 am

...and gave it to the Rothschilds:

http://financialsense.com/contributors/antal-fekete/the-deep-cause-of-the-great-financial-crisis

Great article Dr. Fekete! I hope you realize that WW1 was orchestrated by the banksters.

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manufacturing & China

Post  Shelby on Mon Oct 18, 2010 11:12 am

Outsourcing is not the cause of our dilemma, nor is the solution to stop it:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23555.html

Shelby wrote:Mr. Gordon Long,

I usually have great respect for your articles, as you approach from an engineering factual analysis, and also I do understand you come from the generation of US engineers that watched our technology be outsourced. I knew the (now deceased after his car spun out of control in 1992) guy who developed the computer modeling of the N-P-N transistor and he had lamented how the US engineers were told to give away the technology to the Japanese.

However, you are chasing shadows if you think outsourcing of manufacturing is the cause of current USA problems, and even worse if you think re-gaining manufacturing is a solution. Don't buy into that protectionist lie and myopia:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23142.html#comment95152

Manufacturing is being increasingly automated, and with 7 billion people on earth for the remaining mundane repetitive jobs, the profit margins are being driven to near 0. Manufacturing and the industrial age epoch is dying. Humans are too intelligent to spend their lives employed doing repetitive motions. That is what robots can do better.

The future of technology is software, even the natural sciences are being reduced to computer logic (e.g. nanotech, biotech, etc.):

http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/knowledge-f9/book-ultimate-truth-chapter-6-math-proves-go-forth-multiply-t159-15.htm#3748

Westerners have to move up on the economic food chain, not regress backwards on the evolutionary economic epochs. Here is a specific idea of how to do so, which I am working on implementing now:

http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/knowledge-f9/book-ultimate-truth-chapter-6-math-proves-go-forth-multiply-t159-15.htm#3640

What is causing the world's problems is mankind's love of debt and pooling decisions and resources, and promising the future (which causes over-consumption and other forms of mis-allocation of capital), i.e. the fiat system:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article21650.html

Individual action to come out of the fiat parasite system is the only solution:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23382.html#comment95372

And the REAL (true) economy will be much smaller when we do:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23546.html#comment95571

If you want to read everything I have written on this site so you can come up to speed on understanding the concept and math:

http://www.google.com/search?q=site:marketoracle.co.uk+Shelby+Moore

Catch my published articles too:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/UserInfo-Shelby_H_Moore.html

IMO, you are wrong about the China factor, as it is complicit:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23546.html#comment95571
(follow all the sub-links 3 layers deep to read all about west complicit in Yuan peg, etc)

Cheers.

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WikiLeaks releases evidence of 60% civilian death rate in Iraq

Post  Shelby on Sat Oct 23, 2010 9:27 pm

Major bombshell on Saturday morning!!!

Watch the video at bottom of the page!!!

http://wikileaks.org/

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309 year private wave started 1998

Post  Shelby on Mon Oct 25, 2010 5:55 pm

Shelby wrote:1998 ends 309 year public wave

Rick,

The reason silver declined is because it is the money of the people, i.e. it goes up during a 309 year private wave, and it declines in the recently ended 309 year public wave:

http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Nice%20Try%20but%20No%20Cigar%2010-9-2010.pdf#page8
(goto to page 8 of the PDF, numbered 7 on the page)

In the late 1300s, the people of Europe started to fight back against the remnants of feudalism and the dark ages, and by the end of that private wave fight 309 years later in later by the 1680s, a new nation based on private capital had been born. That nation was the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.

During the 309 years from 1680s to 1998, the public wave was increasing the size of governments all over the world, until now where it is peaking at 50 - 90% of the economies and the globe is laden with debt because of it.

Debt = public economy (i.e. not private capital) = socialism

That is why silver fell in price for the past 300 years. Now it will go up for 309 years.

Socialism has peaked (in terms of % of people who want more government, but the lagging negative effects haven't peaked yet).

Now we begin the hard and long fight of the private wave. It starts very small with just a few of us (many of us will be beheaded in the fight), and it will end 300 years from now with a much better world.

Have faith. Look beyond your small window of time.

See the Martin Armstrong link in quote at top of this post, for more details on the history of the 309 year public and private waves. Martin Armstrong is apparently a detailed and prolific student of history.

===============
I am agreeing that 90% of the people are clueless, but a few % are starting to get it. Smaller things grow faster in % terms (but not nominally).

Realize we are the peak of stupidity and it can't get too much worse in terms of % of people who don't get it (it will get much worse in terms of the lagging effects of that accumulated stupidity). More and more people will start to understand, but this % will be very small, even though it is growing fast. That is the nature of the exponential function, the small things grow faster, but they can't be seen. Take for example, the 30-40 million oz of silver eagles to be sold in this year, that is like doubling every year since 2002, but only now it is large enough that we notice.

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How the One World Currency will come about

Post  Shelby on Wed Oct 27, 2010 8:42 pm

This will make you very angry.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23789.html

...The global economic crisis, really having only just begun, will in years to come spiral into a Great Global Debt Depression, plunging the entire world into the greatest economic catastrophe ever known. This will be the ultimate catalyst, the most pervasive crisis, and most commanding ‘opportunity’ to implement the formation of a global government. In 1988, the Economist ran an article entitled, “Get Ready for the Phoenix,” in which it postulated that by the year 2018, there will be a global currency, which it termed the “Phoenix.” The mention of a phoenix is not to go unnoticed, as symbolically, a phoenix dies and from its ashes a new phoenix emerges. It is the symbol of destruction as a form of creation; the ultimate incarnation of crisis as an opportunity. The article in the Economist acknowledged this meaning, with the idea that economic and monetary collapse will likely lead to the formation of a global currency, stating that, “several more big exchange-rate upsets, a few more stockmarket crashes and probably a slump or two will be needed before politicians are willing to face squarely up to that choice.” Further:

As time passes, the damage caused by currency instability is gradually going to mount; and the very trends that will make it mount are making the utopia of monetary union feasible... The phoenix would probably start as a cocktail of national currencies, just as the Special Drawing Right is today. In time, though, its value against national currencies would cease to matter, because people would choose it for its convenience and the stability of its purchasing power...

...In May of 2010, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, Managing Director of the IMF, stated that, “crisis is an opportunity,” and called for “a new global currency issued by a global central bank, with robust governance and institutional features,” and that the “global central bank could also serve as a lender of last resort.”...

In 2000, Paul Volcker, former Chairman of the Federal Reserve, stated that, “if we are to have a truly global economy, a single world currency makes sense,” and a European Central Bank executive stated that, “we might one day have a single world currency,” in “a step towards the ideal situation of a fully integrated world.”[4] In 1998, Jeffrey Garten, , former Undersecretary of Commerce for International Trade in the Clinton administration, former Managing Director at Lehman Brothers and member of the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote an article for the New York Times in which he called for the creation of a “global Fed” and said that, “the world needs an institution that has a hand on the economic rudder when the seas become stormy. It needs a global central bank.”...

If you think the SDRs are not real, look at the bottom-right of the following page for the Central Bank of the Philippines where they publish their SDR buying rate:

http://www.bsp.gov.ph/statistics/sdds/exchrate.htm

...Some of the world’s largest SWFs are those of the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Norway, China, South Korea, Kuwait, and Russia. As the “recovery” edges into the oblivion of the Great Global Debt Depression, SWFs are buying up American infrastructure, including:

A toll highway in Indiana. The Chicago Skyway. A stretch of highway in Florida. Parking meters in Nashville, Pittsburgh, Los Angeles, and other cities. A port in Virginia. And a whole bevy of Californian public infrastructure projects, all either already leased or set to be leased for fifty or seventy-five years or more in exchange for one-off lump sum payments of a few billion bucks at best, usually just to help patch a hole or two in a single budget year.

America is quite literally for sale, at rock-bottom prices, and the buyers increasingly are the very people who scored big in the oil bubble. Thanks to Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley and the other investment banks that artificially jacked up the price of gasoline over the course of the last decade, Americans delivered a lot of their excess cash into the coffers of sovereign wealth funds like the Qatar Investment Authority, the Libyan Investment Authority, Saudi Arabia's SAMA Foreign Holdings, and the UAE's Abu Dhabi Investment Authority...

The West is To Go Into Perpetual Debt Slavery, Austerity, Inflation

...It essentially creates a condition in which a nation is permanently indebted, and the cumulative debt increases annually. This occurs due to a nation struggling to pay its annual interest on the debt, and so it seeks the ‘assistance’ of the IMF and international creditors to provide a quick loan to the country to pay the interest. The IMF provides a loan, which is instantly redirected to pay the creditors, and the loan amount that the IMF provided is then added to the overall national debt. Thus, rising interest rates will increase the annual interest payments, because the debt itself has enlarged. The nation will need the ‘assistance’ of another loan – more debt – to pay interest on its overall debt, which then continues to rise. This is how the nations of the ‘Third World’ became so indebted: accumulating more debt to pay interest on old debt, which then creates new debt, requiring more debt to pay the interest on the accumulated debt, and on and on and on. Meanwhile, the ‘structural adjustment programs’ (SAPs) were implemented under the ‘conditions’ of IMF and World Bank loans and ‘assistance’ to deconstruct the social foundations of a nation, eliminate the middle class and exacerbate poverty, presumably in order to help reduce the deficit. This now appears to be the fate of the ‘First World’ industrialized nations...

The BIS gold swap applies:

http://www.sprott.com/Docs/InvestorsDigest/2010/MPLID_082710_pg283Emb.pdf

The IMF Can Audit Our Fed, but We Are Not Allowed!

...As a further indication of the coming ‘third world’ status of America, in June of 2008, in the midst of the financial crisis, the United States Federal Reserve was audited by the IMF for the first time in history. As part of the investigation, “the Fed, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the major investment banks, mortgage banks and hedge funds will be asked to hand over confidential documents to the IMF team.”...

The only possible way to stop the NWO is for a significant minority of the people to move to private gold and silver money systems, and to stop using debt, insurance, futures contracts, which are the Major Frauds that enable creeping socialism:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article21650.html

Save before you spend! Store to prepare for acts of nature, don't paper store in insurance. Ditto depend on promises of what will happen in the future (contracts). All of those frauds result in mathematical failure and socialism.

Of course the people won't understand what I wrote and of course the NWO will come. And after NWO kills most of the people, it will also die, and then a new smaller private wave will rise from the ashes.

Here is another good article about the path forward:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23855.html

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Just like Rome, the "collapse" will take up to 309 years (from 1998)

Post  Shelby on Sat Oct 30, 2010 9:00 pm

Many Crashes to Cross ("but I can't seem to find my way"):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CktlPIlsBdw


It depends what we are talking about when we say "collapse". Was 2008 the "collapse"?

If we are talking about the death of the nation-state system of the world, I believe the change of the global world order from a public wave (increasing governance since birth of the USA circa 1689) to a private wave, will take 309 years from 1998 to reach its final apex (least governance):

http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/economics-f4/changing-world-order-t32-105.htm#3818

Steve is correct that reduction in the EROEI is pushing the indebted sector towards default faster. The declining EROEI is simultaneously a cause of the peak in debt and an accumulated effect of decades of debt (and the socialism centralization enabled by massive debt societies) causing misallocation of energy investment priorities.

Basically what we have is a world built on credit (borrowing from future to deny the realities of the present), thus we have a world that has some priorities wrong. Which priorities? We don't know. That is the thing about excessive debt and central decision making, it obfuscates the optimum annealing.

We simply don't know what energy alternatives might exist, because the artificially low prices of some forms of energy has been obfuscating the energy that could be discovered (lack of investment because price per BTU is too low to justify investing in R&D). Ditto the effects of centralized control (90+% of all oil is nationalized and or centrally controlled by majors). There are lots of ideas about what might replace declining EROEI far into the future, e.g. natural gas, nuclear, nanotechnology, etc.. But we simply can't see it (yet), because the investment wasn't done already.

But as the crash moves forward, investment is going to morph.

Steve needs to remember that energy won't suddenly stop flowing, it will decline at some percentage, and then investment will respond in kind. As Rick Rule says, "the best cure for high prices [scarcity], are high prices":

http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/economics-f4/peak-oil-nonsense-t102-30.htm#3809

I think it is crucial that you Steve understand that it is entirely possible for the world to let the national currencies go into perpetual QE (halving of interest rates) because there is nothing for the world to run to other than gold:

http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/economics-f4/inflation-or-deflation-t9-465.htm#3838

And this is what will enable the NWO currency, because the world will need something to run to in order to escape the hell of perpetual QE:

http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/economics-f4/stocks-vs-precious-metals-vs-bonds-vs-real-estate-t11-15.htm#3849

==========someone has been reading my writings============
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23885.html#comment95954

Shelby wrote:re: "Perpetual deflation is hyperinflation"

dincer, nice to see you've been reading me:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23162.html

But let me qualify your statement to make it more accurate and understood as follows.

Perpetual deflation is inflation (potentially hyper) relative to GOLD OR SDRs (but can not be hyperinflation relative to general commodities):

http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/economics-f4/changing-world-order-t32-120.htm#3850

=======================
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23629.html#comment95970

Shelby wrote:re: banks won't lose if we default

I had posted on this before:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23558.html#comment95675

If we default, we implode our economy, we have no choice but to bail out the banks. Our financial systems are already intertwined with the cancer. There is no way to extricate the cancer without imploding the economy and starving people. That is why instead there will be a slow decline into a NWO:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23862.html#comment95969

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World will split into 10 regions

Post  Shelby on Mon Feb 07, 2011 11:05 pm

I saw your email around new years, and I saved it and was planning to reply to you, after I finished a new project. The project took longer than I expected, I was working about 12 up to 18 hours per day, nearly nonstop since Dec. 17.

I have been thinking of you, given the overthrow of the governments by the people in Egypt and Tunisia, and this was caused by Wikileaks, Twitter, the internet, and cell phones, where the people have become informed about the corruption in their governments.

But the US government is actually leaking this information on purpose, even though they pretend to be angry about it, it is a lie.

The possible plan is to bring North Africa and Middle East into one economic and political region or union (like the European Union or the coming Asian Union), as one of the 10 Kings in Revelation in Bible. Here is an article with a map of the plan, and you can see that Ethiopia is not to be included in that union:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article26106.html

Interestingly, Somalia is targetted to be in that political union.

Ah that is because this will be muslim union, and Ethiopia is Christian!

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Jason was very close

Post  Shelby on Tue Feb 08, 2011 5:50 am

Click the images for articles.



#1 is Israel surrounded by #5.


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Terbolizard can break the back of the NWO?

Post  Shelby on Tue Feb 08, 2011 7:05 pm

The globalists are trying to frame this transition forward as one of corrupt national leaders and they want to appeal to the sense of justice that Muslims feel in their religion. In this way, there can be a transfer of power from the nation-state to the regional false idol which the globalists plan to install for the people to express their emotions. This false idol will appeal to their sense of justice and religion, and it will unite the people across the nations to overthrow their corrupt national leaders.

Jason, your brother Terbolizard appears to me to be an extremely talented creative person (based on coin designs he did, the social network pages he did creating multiple personalities for himself, the site he programmed that as chaotic but genuis, etc), even more so than me. He only needs perhaps a little seed of guidance (and then get out of the way) on where to direct his creativity for the most return, as all creative people tend to be unbounded (often results or appears to be like not focused, but that is the nature of creativity).

My idea is could there be a coin design, the one coin design that appealed to people so much, that you could mass produce it (maybe not at your mint, but that is okay). I am thinking Terbolizard could develop a design which appeal to HONESTY and COMMON LOVE OF ALL MEN TO TRUTH, that somehow showed that Allah and Moses were both honest men, or somehow appealed to the people of the world to fight for the common enemy who is trying to use our religions to trick us. I am thinking there could be a coin that changed the world.

Ideas are swirling in my head. Maybe an Eagle on the top of a granite cliff looking down on different races exchanging glittering metal with handshakes, with the light of the Muslim crescent moon illuminating the scene from above. That way we don't actually put Jesus's image or Allah's image on it, so we don't use images of deities in vain.

Maybe someone else understands better than me the relationship with Koran and Bible, I know they mention each other.

I am just thinking that my God would not forsake the people who call themselves by another name.

Time to bury the hatchet, and use HONEST WEIGHTS & MEASURES, so we will not be fooled.

I realize in terms of marketing, maybe you can not sell to the muslim abroad, but maybe there is a coin design which appeals to the westerners' desire to make a statement of truth about these matters, which if became popular would signal to the muslim's abroad that we are have a common goal. So that these globalists can't breed regions that hate each other.

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Re: Changing World Order

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