Bitcoin - the "gold will save us" ponzi scheme

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Re: Bitcoin - the "gold will save us" ponzi scheme

Post  Shelby on Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:08 pm

vqp wrote:
This is how I come to terms with my decision to hoard some btc:

There is plenty of money being made by businesses in the credit card and payments arena. BTC cap value is not even 1% of that money.

The real money does not come from the operation of their computer systems or printing plastic cards but from the FUD about the rates of morosity, claims, lawsuits ,etc.  

As with the insurance gambling businesses they rely on typical information assymetry between users and companies, they are in better position to asses the odds of credit problems. And they bet with their rates. The bets are placed by humans.  

Bitcoin is taking a piece of that market, taking away human activities (such as risk assesment) and replacing it by objective algorithms. Transparency left governments with nothing to regulate. The algorithm is a clear contract between users, as clear as a contract can be. If all contracts were like this one, there would be no lawyers.

My rationale is that BTC is a new company that competes with Paypal with a new approach based on algorithms and I bought some stock to see what happens.

Satoshi created the company and is becoming rich. Good for him. Thanks Satoshi for sharing.

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Re: Bitcoin - the "gold will save us" ponzi scheme

Post  Shelby on Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:10 pm

wtfvanity wrote:
Korbman wrote:
Shelby wrote:
Where is the profit of Bitcoin?

Profit...Prophet...get it *buh dum, tish*



I like it.

Pope Satoshi!

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Re: Bitcoin - the "gold will save us" ponzi scheme

Post  Shelby on Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:12 pm

GCInc. et al, ok I may be naive on NSA.

Can you all carry it from here without totally trashing my points in my absence?

I need to go back to work. Programming is what I do.

Thanks to all for the opportunity to share my idea.

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Re: Bitcoin - the "gold will save us" ponzi scheme

Post  Shelby on Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:13 pm

vqp I also love the potential of Bitcoin.

I hate to see it ruined by a ridiculous debasement curve that favors the original creator who mined first.

It is causing insane levels of valuation at such an early stage.

We need to build it out rationally.

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Re: Bitcoin - the "gold will save us" ponzi scheme

Post  Shelby on Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:13 pm

there are some other issues too.

IMHO, the computational Proof-of-work is not democratic. We need to make it hard-disk space, everybody has one of those (so we have a lot of capital to fight with collectively). I already explained how to do it technically. Otherwise we lose any way:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=158106.0

But I don't care who builds it. I just wish someone would and pronto!

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Re: Bitcoin - the "gold will save us" ponzi scheme

Post  Shelby on Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:14 pm

http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/8671/any-counter-proof-that-satoshi-nakamoto-did-not-design-a-ponzi-scheme-on-purpose/8697?noredirect=1#comment11345_8671

@makerofthings7 currencies don't have profit either. FB's gross sales are $4B on $60B mcap. Avg. daily vol is $1B, so it has a 3 mo velocity of 1.5. This is higher than bitcoin, yet it still was a ponzi ipo where insiders cashed out and suckers lost their shirts. The requisite white lies existed on the ipo.

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Re: Bitcoin - the "gold will save us" ponzi scheme

Post  Shelby on Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:15 pm

vqp wrote:

Shelby wrote:
vqp I also love the potential of Bitcoin.

There is a value with the potential you see. And value wants to belong to somebody.

In my dreams, it would belong to those who create the system that has the long-term staying power, but it may be too late. Bitcoin can't be changed now drastically (the debasement schedule is non-negotiable according to the wiki) and it has too much inertia and no one is going to like something that appreciates more sanely because everybody prefers "to get rich quick", rather than a methodical approach.

vqp wrote:What is your problem with Satoshi and other early adopters getting insanely rich for taking Paypal/VISA/MC market share?

The problem as I see it, is he designed the debasement to be so short in duration and to feed into the delusion that goldbugs have that gold was a better currency in the past (it wasn't! go study history, it was same sh8t.).  But this is really twisted because it doesn't even have the similar type of gradual debasement that gold and silver have, it is more like palladium or some rare earth metal that was just discovered.

<rambling>There is a reason we don't use these for money, it is because the debasement is too rapid. Go read Dr. Fekete, I am sure many of you goldbugs know of him. He explained this to me in email long ago. I was writing on gold-eagle.com since 2007. Go read my articles. Some were lost. I used to write on financialsense.com too, but they lost my articles. Ditto Lewrockell who deleted my articles because I disagreed with him.</rambling>

It sort of analogous to Russia dumping palladium, then hoarding all production, but in this case they speed up the debasement in the beginning to get an inordinate share, then they slow it down inordinately too rapid, to create false scarcity which helps no one but the early adopters. It kills the long-term of the currency. Bitcoin will never survive long-term I can guarantee you that. It will run way up in price, and then it will fail. The govt will step in, then they have their digital currency. They will then modify it to fluctuate debasement.

You can't deny from the market what it needs. Debasement must fluctuate. Either you do it, or govt will later. Do you want me to explain why?

So what he accomplished is the psychology that we are doing something good, yet he compressed it so it is really bad. Nothing like stable money at all. Clever trick but I saw it immediately because I am so well studied since 2007 on monetary theory.

I would love for him to come forward now and say "we need to fix the debasement, I was wrong", then I would have no problem with the coins he already owns. And I would respect him much more. I would work on it, if anyone needs me (which they don't, there are good programmers here).

If we can't fluctuate the debasement rate, then we can't have it auto-adjust to abnormally high levels of dormancy, which are indicating froth and ponzi-like nature. But simply removing that goldbug delusion attribute, might be enough by itself. Debase it over 100 years at least, so the early adopters don't get 50% of the money supply. Giving them all the incentive to pump, pump, pump.

The reason it hurts us is because an unstable currency has many problems. I explained in a prior link that it opens a scenario for the govt to apply deposit insurance or otherwise regulate bcz dumb fool investors will complain when they lose their shirts. Also a volatile currency will not be adopted as a unit-of-account by businesses. They have fixed costs in USD, so they will go bankrupt from the volatility. So they will have real problems with meshing with the currency due to levels of FX risk.

There are many monetary reasons. Do you want to have a serious discussion?
 
vqp wrote:
That is the whole point: money now might be coming from new investors as in all start-ups, but if this works as I think it can, there will be real money for the senioriage of the currency for a while and modest money supply for processing transactions in a highly competitive market.

Even Forrest Gump got rich unexpectedly and he didn't even take an informed decision.

We need the seniorage forever to keep all miners on our side. We would be better off if every user can mine with his hard disk space, no need ASICs.

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Re: Bitcoin - the "gold will save us" ponzi scheme

Post  Shelby on Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:17 pm

DataPlumber wrote:
Ponzi schemes have no inherent value.

Bitcoin has inherent value as a transaction processing system.

Therefore, Bitcoin != Ponzi.

Go read my immediately prior post again. I don't know if you can grasp it?

You are entirely missing the point, which just shows how clever Satoshi's scheme is. When they can make you believe that something isn't what it is, then you've fucked yourself. Rothschild has been doing this for centuries. People are dumb. Even you goldbugs are dumb. Very easy to herd you.

DataPlumber wrote:
You seem very deeply emotionally invested in the phrase "ponzi scheme", which is just hyperbole, and your dogged refusal to move toward a more semantically accurate term does no favors to your credibility.

Why not couch your argument in semantically correct terms?

No. You try to move the discussion to non-important words, because you don't grasp the importance of the issue which has nothing to do with whatever name you would like to agree upon. As I said, name it "zozozo" if you want. I don't care, as long as you understand the issue. There is no exact term, bcz he cleverly invented a new way of doing a ponzi scheme. It is still a ponzi scheme, if you look at the generative essence of it.

I suppose you need about 130 - 140 abstract IQ. You can test yourself here on the abstract:

http://iqtest.dk


DataPlumber wrote:
If you'll pardon my presumption, it looks to me like you're trying to say:
(A) "I believe Bitcoin is overvalued, as the growth in its current value as a currency/exchange system doesn't match the growth in its trading price."
(B) "Satoshi could singlehandedly crash the economy if he attempted to cash out all of the 3mil BTC he's suspected of controlling."

The first is an opinion based on a fact, and the second is just fact.

B has nothing to do with it, except that 50% of the coins were generated in the first 4 years if I am not mistake. And 75% by 2016. He took the money and ran. That is a characteristic of a ponzi scheme, but not sufficient by itself.

A is not a problem if the scheme itself is not designed with a white lie to deceive investors and cause them to make this egregious overvaluation.

The white lie was the whole bit about we will make a better gold. That was just a cover for the fact these BANKSTERS were stealing 50% of the money supply in the first 4 years.


DataPlumber wrote:
To those points I would say:

(A) People who assign a higher value to BTC than you do, are doing so with full understanding that it's overvalued for the real-world transaction processing happening right now, but they perceive a higher future value than you do.  This is where the term "speculation" comes from, which is the first half of "speculative bubble", which may very well be happening right now.  And "speculative bubble" a much more accurate description than "Ponzi scheme", where there is no actual value underlying.  What we have here is a question of how much actual value underlies, not whether-or-not any does.

(B) Yup.  But by doing so, we'd be able to follow the money to where he/they live, and that could raise a lot of legal problems for them.  Besides, doing so would be short-sighted and foolish, and I expect anyone as smart as Satoshi has proven to be would also recognize this.



I refuted those in what I wrote above.

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Re: Bitcoin - the "gold will save us" ponzi scheme

Post  Shelby on Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:17 pm

wtfvanity wrote:
Shelby wrote:
We need to build it out rationally.

Communism! Must... force... everyone... to be equal! Let the government hand out the bitcoins. We can't trust any other way!!!

I am an anarchist. You conflated some things which lead to your wrong conclusion.

I never said to give it away equally. I said to make the playing field level, so everyone can compete fairly. A meritocracy instead of a scam.

The hard-disk space is something everyone can run the mining client on in my design. But I am not stopping anyone from buying more hard disks. It just means the users are also a huge mass of miners, which will put a stop to these threat of the banksters using their 50% of the money supply to buy ASICs and enslave us.


Is the supply of ASICs sufficiently diversified? Can you buy one any where? What about hard disks?

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Re: Bitcoin - the "gold will save us" ponzi scheme

Post  Shelby on Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:18 pm

Peter Lambert wrote:
AnonyMint wrote:

Where is the profit of Bitcoin?

If Joe buys a bitcoin for 10 dollars, and then sells it to Steve for 15 dollars, Joe has made 5 dollars profit, but that was not 5 dollars from bitcoins, it was 5 dollars from trading bitcoins. Trading bitcoins is more like trading a commodity than trading a stock. You do not get dividends from holding oil, you make money by selling the oil for more than you paid for it. Is oil a ponzi scheme?


Yeah just like selling FB stock. And FB has a velocity of 1.5 every 3 months. Bitcoin does not. 60+% does not move at all. We don't the actual figure, we only know the lower-bound.

And even FB was much better velocity, it still sold off like a ponzi scheme, because the insiders were making white lies on the ipo to pump up the value.

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Re: Bitcoin - the "gold will save us" ponzi scheme

Post  Shelby on Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:19 pm

Don't y'all know that no mass movement occurs without the Banksters owning it.

Don't be naive.

As he said, "get the bitcoin out of your ass" and be objective.

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Re: Bitcoin - the "gold will save us" ponzi scheme

Post  Shelby on Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:19 pm

You are being herded to provide liquidity for the insiders to take profits (but they also want to control  it long-term as they do facebook).

This is the way it always works. Same sh8t, same smell. Nothing changes.

Facebook's underwriters were short.

Don't try to be free! Or if you are going to, then never expect it to be with a mass phenomeon. Needs to be smaller. They don't have time to swat all the flies.

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Re: Bitcoin - the "gold will save us" ponzi scheme

Post  Shelby on Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:20 pm

christop, you are conflating too many things. I will just let you think you won.

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Re: Bitcoin - the "gold will save us" ponzi scheme

Post  Shelby on Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:20 pm

Yeah chris you won  ;)

I am not quite as clever as Satoshi, because he wasn't likely one person.

One thing you must realize is that money is complicated. It doesn't have one dimension or even 10.

Thus the key insight that Satoshi made was that he needed a simple story about money.

So all those who need to feel they understand, will boast that they do.

The key is to make dumb people think they are smarter than they are. Then they get overconfident.

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Re: Bitcoin - the "gold will save us" ponzi scheme

Post  Shelby on Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:20 pm

Okay I guess I am out of here for now.

If anyone wants me to implement my idea, then contact me.

I don't know if I will pursue it otherwise. Have many things to work on already.

I put the design out there for anyone who wants to copy it.

chris, I did not win anything. No of us will be winners. We will all lose. I know you weren't interested in winning, you were just interested in making sure no one in the media calls bitcoin a ponzi scheme because you are worried about the value of your bitcoins. Don't worry, the banksters are pushing this price up. They will make sure it goes up, until they are ready for it to crash.

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Re: Bitcoin - the "gold will save us" ponzi scheme

Post  Shelby on Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:21 pm

astutiumRob wrote:
Shelby wrote:
1. It is a ponzi scheme (whether transparent or not), unless the rate of price appreciatioin slows to be not so many multiples of the rate of REAL transaction growth.
bitcoin has no "rate of price appreciation" - thats a simple supply/demand issue - there's no assigned or implied "value" beyond the uBTC number

I am not going to repeat the whole discussion again. If you are not going to get, then you are not going get it.

You go ahead. Enjoy the delusion.

All of you try to look at only one dimension at a time, you have to look at all the dimensions. What drives the demand and supply? Etc....

NEVERMIND!

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Re: Bitcoin - the "gold will save us" ponzi scheme

Post  Shelby on Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:22 pm

DataPlumber wrote:
@Korbman

I love your summary.

But you overlooked the part where he claimed to be smarter than everyone else, but suggested, in his broken English, that we could get our true measure via an online IQ test.

That was my favorite part.

Wow you guys are insecure.

DataPlum, have you ever heard of getting sleepy? I have been at this for about 72 hours practically nonstop. Not to mention that I was debating 10 people at the same time both here and in bitcoin SE, so I had to type furiously fast.

When you find yourself "re-summarizing" (twisting and spinning) to defend your egos, you know where you are.

And the very intelligent readers can see right through your BS.

Look at the votes on "No". That is well distributed by IQ. They are laughing at you.

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Re: Bitcoin - the "gold will save us" ponzi scheme

Post  Shelby on Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:24 pm

Korbman wrote:
Shelby wrote:
I have been at this for about 72 hours practically nonstop. Not to mention that I was debating 10 people at the same time both here and in bitcoin SE [...]

Hmm..it might say something about your situation that you've been repeatedly debating (the same argument) with 10 people.

In what logic system is the mania of crowds equal to wisdom? Why don't we put the debasement of our currency up to a popular vote?

(sometime people just don't think)

kslaughter wrote:My opion is that Bitcoin are never going to go down.

Attaboy!

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Re: Bitcoin - the "gold will save us" ponzi scheme

Post  Shelby on Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:25 pm

yefi wrote:
Shelby wrote:I am not quite as clever as Satoshi, because he wasn't likely one person.

What the fuck are you talking about? You are Shelby Moore III, not even all the faculty of the largest university can compare to your unrivalled intellect. Frankly, why you even condescend to speak to us is a mystery...

Who started the mutual disrespect and lack of cordiality?

I know who my peers are and I am humbled when I write to them (JustSaying is me):

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4861&cpage=1#comment-397124

Do you know who created the term "open source"?

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Re: Bitcoin - the "gold will save us" ponzi scheme

Post  Shelby on Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:25 pm

The first developer to interact with Satoshi was one of our tribe:

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4854&cpage=1#comment-397115

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Re: Bitcoin - the "gold will save us" ponzi scheme

Post  Shelby on Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:26 pm

christop wrote:
Shelby wrote:
christop, you are conflating too many things. I will just let you think you won.

... says the person who thinks that an economic bubble is a Ponzi scheme.

Clue: does an economic bubble require a lie?

(I told you that before but you can't seem to assimilate more than a few facts at a time)

If you want to differentiate malice from a free market where investors can make their own choices, then the lie is relevant. If not, then nothing is scam. The key is that it is not economic phenomena when there is an individual distorting the asymmetrical quality of information.

That deceiving central party is what makes it a ponzi scheme. This differs from pyramid where the underlings do the deceiving. And all of this differs from economic bubbles which can be caused by aggregate effects or herding behavior of humans.

CAPICHE!

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Re: Bitcoin - the "gold will save us" ponzi scheme

Post  Shelby on Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:28 pm

DataPlumber wrote:
So you think Satoshi is evil because you can't imagine a world where any developer would willingly pass a project off to the public, anonymously.  Then you look for evil reasons for evil things in Bitcoin based on that 'irrefutable' premise.

You continue to make assumptions that are not true, and conflate things which are irrelevant. This is what people with lower IQ do.

I wrote an explanation which makes Satoshi a hero:

http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/8671/any-counter-proof-that-satoshi-nakamoto-did-not-design-a-ponzi-scheme-on-purpose/8709#8709

Note that is not a counter-proof that he didn't do it on purpose.

DataPlumber wrote:
So, let's challenge that Assumption.

Non-Evil(tm) reasons to stay anonymous / drop involvement:
1. He thought long and hard about this, and realized that if the creator stayed involved, he'd never get any sleep, and he values his privacy.
2. Bitcoin has to lack a clear leader if it's to sustain credibility in its claim of being non-centralized.
3. The only way for his baby (to borrow your metaphor) to succeed is to raise it to young adulthood, then send it out into the world to make its own way.

These are assumptions because they are not at all required by the facts of the situation.

Whereas my explanation is the only one that can fit the facts.

My comments about your 3 assumptions:

1. I don't value my sleep and privacy more than recognition for my creations. We don't know if he did or not. Irrelevant.

2. Nonsense. Satoshi's design is the leader, everybody knows that it can't be modified. And Gavin Anderson is his selected general going forward.

3. Yeah so what? I never said he didn't nurture it and send it out. Irrelevant point.

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Re: Bitcoin - the "gold will save us" ponzi scheme

Post  Shelby on Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:28 pm

Korbman wrote:
Shelby wrote:
In what logic system is the mania of crowds equal to wisdom?

This is called Collective Intelligence, and may also run under the guise of Distributed Knowledge or Group Intelligence.

I'll just leave this here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collective_intelligence

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraordinary_Popular_Delusions_and_the_Madness_of_Crowds

And you did not address my point about the insanity of allowing popular opinion to decide the rate of debasement of our currency:

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=984

(insanity defined as doing the same thing over and over again, and wondering why the same failure results)

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Re: Bitcoin - the "gold will save us" ponzi scheme

Post  Shelby on Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:29 pm

tenko wrote:
reading *some* posts in this thread is like inception >.> "looking" (as in "i dare you") for a counter-proof for theory that a not ponzi scheme economic bubble was not created on purpouse, which is really a ponzi scheme created by an evil camphor alike guy who allegedly has left his creation and his name and these are 2 things that we know about him. yay. conspiration theories <3

You either fail to understand Occam's Razor, or you fail to agree that Bitcoin is unarguably a ponzi scheme. You can review the links to why it is unarguably a ponzi scheme:

http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/8671/any-counter-proof-that-satoshi-nakamoto-did-not-design-a-ponzi-scheme-on-purpose/8709#8709

tenko wrote:
as for the group "intelligence", as bacon says, "the intelligence of the group equals the intelligence of the stupidest person in the group". how's that relevant to this convo anyway? neither economy nor any money/currency is based on group intelligence, group perception nor group's opinion.

In a forum yes, because can't ignore single person as it fills up the space. In voting, it is the stupidest group with the most voting power.

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Re: Bitcoin - the "gold will save us" ponzi scheme

Post  Shelby on Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:30 pm

yefi wrote:
Shelby wrote:I know who my peers are and I am humbled when I write to them

And do the members of One Direction reply to your writings?

The participants there often disagree and argue with each other, so there is no One Direction.

And yes they do interact with me occasionally:

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4824&cpage=1#comment-396599 (warning humor ahead)

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