Peak Oil Nonsense

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My crystal ball...

Post  Shelby on Tue Mar 08, 2011 3:51 am

Just keep one thing in mind, it is extremely difficult to kill 100+ million people. Hilter couldn't do it. And we have a much more vast land area for people to escape.

Rather I don't think the globalists are going for unrealistic kill (Ted Turner's delusional Georgia Guidestones notwithstanding), instead they just want things to get nasty and difficult enough, that people accept the socialized solution that is offered to them.

If non-essential transportation were shut down by $500 oil price, there can be sufficient oil to grow food, it is just people will have a hard time affording it. This is exactly what the globalists want. They want to tax the middle class to cover the cost to feed the 30 - 50% who can't pay 500% higher food prices. Remember Buffett purchased an entire railroad! (he knows long-haul trucking will die)

So what I see is there will be huge fights, but the people will get fed and those people will support the government because it is feeding them.

So I see a long drawn out attrition.

Gold, silver, energy, and food will go skyhigh, and so will taxes. They will cut some services, but when it gets down to food, taxes will rise instead.

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big picture thinking

Post  Shelby on Wed Mar 09, 2011 4:31 am

I agree there is a train-wreck ahead. And it could eventually spill out into regional or even world war a decade from now or so, if things get bad enough. Wars can kill a large number of people on the pretext of defense. But to kill 1 in 3 or 13 in 14 people (Ted Turner's Georgia Guidestones), is very difficult to do. Would require a zombie population devoid of thought and emotion.

It is really difficult to starve humans when there are forests around. You can do that in Somalia perhaps, partially because it is a desert (and the tribal/nomadic culture from that). Perhaps that is why the globalists tried to destroy the wildlife in the Gulf? (assuming they caused that on purpose)

Rather what I think is coming is a civil war of sorts, where those with savings and discipline, struggle against the socialists (including govt employees, retirees, indebted, etc) who suck on the tit of the fiat theft machine.

We are very early in the process where the Tea Party people are just starting to figure out that politics is a black hole of cooption and manipulation. They are starting to make their war to Alex Jones' infowars.com and that is why he is seeing his viewership skyrocket and Martin Sheen willing to give him the exclusive on his opening salvo in fight against the old guard of mass media.

As these folks start to learn to save in gold & silver, then they will be ready to provide the base of support that keeps the whole thing from devolving into a Somalia.

But yeah, it is going to be quite a chaotic struggle. And I agree the cities are going to get nasty. But one person's nasty is another person's excitment and stimulation.

Hope you don't mind I will copy this reply (not your comments) to the forum, because I think I made a few points that people might find stimulating. I am not criticizing you in this reply.

I will grant that oil is a major player in this global transformation, but I don't think exactly as a peak oil as the #1 driving factor, but the falling EROEI plays an important role in defining when the monarches in middle east can not be sustained, as you pointed out in conjunction which population growth that desires freedom. These middle east countries were sparsh tribes roaming desert, not they have large populations and cities and internet awareness.

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Whoops, 41 MPG city for $19,000

Post  Shelby on Thu Apr 21, 2011 8:21 pm

So much for that big problem with oil:

http://www.ford.com/cars/fusion/

I realize others will have a problem, but any one who buys one of these will cut their gas costs in half.

That one only gets 33 MPG highway, because its regenerative braking is optimized for city. If you prefer 40 MPG highway for $15,000:

http://www.hyundaiusa.com/elantra/

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Thorium

Post  Shelby on Sat May 21, 2011 2:36 pm

TPTB got to have their plutonium so they have the "kill everyone if you harm us" card.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8393984/Safe-nuclear-does-exist-and-China-is-leading-the-way-with-thorium.html

US physicists in the late 1940s explored thorium fuel for power. It has a higher neutron yield than uranium, a better fission rating, longer fuel cycles, and does not require the extra cost of isotope separation.

The plans were shelved because thorium does not produce plutonium for bombs.

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North Dakota is producing 2% of USA oil demand

Post  Shelby on Sat May 21, 2011 9:34 pm

http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/05/north-dakota-oil-production-359589.html
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/ene_oil_con-energy-oil-consumption

Texas is not increasing, but produces about 5% of USA demand:

http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/pressreleases/2010/072910a.php
http://www.timesrecordnews.com/news/2008/aug/04/texas-leads-nation-in-oil-production/

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50% improvement in diesel fuel economy coming

Post  Shelby on Fri May 27, 2011 4:13 pm

Diesel is already 30% more fuel efficient than gas, and now add this:

http://ecomotors.com/sites/default/files/power-density

The world has plenty of oil if we will use 1/3 of what we use now, by shifting from 20 MPG to 60 MPG vehicles.

Remember that we can also run these on natural gas.

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Ford designing a 1.0 liter engine

Post  Shelby on Mon Jun 06, 2011 10:23 am

To meet the new mandate in USA for 35 MPG average fleet economy by 2014, up from USA current average of 22.5 MPG.

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Dakota no unemployment, because oil industry booming

Post  Shelby on Tue Jul 05, 2011 4:49 pm

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daniel-gross/north-dakota-spurred-energy-ag-boom-3-2-122815061.html;_ylt=Ai1BzGrINiz8BgUE.H4pG6O7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTFmNHA1Ymd1BHBvcwMzBHNlYwNleHBlcnRPcGluaW9uRHluYW1pYwRzbGsDd2h5bm9ydGhkYWtv

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Chevy will bring 50 mpg diesel car to USA finally

Post  Shelby on Tue Jul 12, 2011 1:14 am

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/AP-Sources-GM-to-sell-diesel-apf-629858216.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=

I have been saying for several years that diesel was the cure to cutting the demand for oil.

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Confirmation bias on the cause and implications of Peak Oil

Post  Shelby on Mon Jul 25, 2011 12:55 pm

The myopia of peak oil proponents...

To: Ugo Bardi <bardi@unifi.it>
Subject: Confirmation bias on the cause and implications of Peak Oil

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/ugo-bardi/2011/07/22/entropy-peak-oil-and-stoic-philosophy-part-2

Prof Bardi,

Apologies this is hastily scribbled and thus full of grammatical and spelling errors, and may be insufficiently organized for coherence.

Regarding your article linked above, you show a simplified closed-system thermodynamic model of the economy, input resources, and waste. It shows that when the resources fall below the waste, the economy peaks.

I would like you to note that peak oil whale oil production may not have coincided with a peak in the available supply of whales in the ocean, but rather the onslaught of cheap petroleum oil.

Thus it is not rational to assume that a peak in oil production is caused by a peak in oil in the ground (or even the EROEI to mine it), and that it is causing a peak in the economy, unless you can prove it. It could very well be the tail that is wagging the dog, i.e. that peak debt (runaway fiat and socialized systems without significant depression for 80 years) has misallocated exploration and development capital, and thus we may not know the what the supply is in the ground. Also the potential political corruption to hinder exploration for and/or to hide true supply figures (in either positive or negative direction as both have an impact on market feedback into exploration) that such a peak debt causes, and the fact that oil is the most nationalized major resource on earth.

And we don't know if some technology is about to replace oil. For example, if doubled fuel efficiency on travel from 22 mpg in USA (which consumes 25% of world's oil) to say 44 mpg in China with bullet trains, efficient diesels, smaller cars, electric cars, etc.., coupled with an west that won't be able to afford to travel soon as the bankruptcy contagion spreads, thus drastically reducing oil consumption and possibly replaced with a new jobs paradigm of "virtual commuting" on the internet.

Certainly I am envisioning millions of more programmers and new thermodynamic model of knowledge interaction within the next few years with my work:

http://copute.com

Best regards,
Shelby Moore III

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SmartGrid meters - Total control over our lives

Post  Shelby on Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:48 pm

And now you see that it started with King Hubbert, who also created this Peak Oil lie to help bring about this control:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ul5oQ3wbstQ#t=723s

Peak Oil was a lie put in your heads by the elite, so they can put SmartMeters in all your homes and control everything you do.

I told you, I told you, I told you.

Never believe that God didn't put all we needed here naturally.

There will be those that say this helps our progress, but they ignore this:

http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/t9p540-inflation-or-deflation#4521

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1000 Natural gas fueling stations planned

Post  Shelby on Wed Aug 17, 2011 12:39 pm

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/72339650/

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peak oil data says...

Post  Shelby on Wed Aug 17, 2011 10:28 pm

Rational.

Except that I don't trust data where the industry is nearly 100% nationalized.

And besides it is an irrelevant strawman, because if we had free markets in energy then the free market would have found what ever is the necessary next paradigm, whether it be shale, coal-to-liquids, natural gas, safe solid salts cooled self-contained nuclear, thorium instead of uranium, breeder reactors, etc.

>> So now you see Hubbert and Peak Oil lie was part of the conspiracy plan.
>
> If the massive volumes of data on oil production are accurate, and I
> assume they are, then the situation is one where the elites knew peak oil
> production would be reached eventually and they decided to create a crisis
> by using globalization in a way that rapidly (almost exponentially)
> increased demand and thus accelerating the tipping point to a catastrophic
> outcome. The catastrophe magnified by the fact that virtually every
> economy and all major sources of food production are now dependent on oil.
> This would explain the geopolitical priority of controlling all aspects
> of oil production. This is why they created Al Qaeda and are still
> funding Islamic radicals, to have an excuse to wage endless war in the
> Middle East to finally subdue the last holdouts to the NWO.
>
> Hubbert did accurately forecast the peak of U.S. oil production and even
> Woods refers to him as a "brilliant geophysicist". Hubbert must have been
> in the Fabian Socialist camp and the the derision of his model by Big Oil
> reflected the fact that Big Oil was represented by the fascists - the
> Fabians and the fascists were still distinct and not actively merging at
> that time.

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Obama using EPA to illegally shut down coal plants

Post  Shelby on Sat Aug 27, 2011 9:29 am

http://www.infowars.com/enviro-nazis-seize-power-infowars-special-report-w-alex-jones/

I didn't have time to go verify the accusations, but if true, this is more evidence that all this "peak" propoganda is part of a plan by TPTB to reduce supply, eliminate competitors, increase profit margins, and accomplish the impoverishment necessary to obtain the world government objective.

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Suburbia dying, but its not because of peak oil

Post  Shelby on Thu Sep 01, 2011 7:25 am

I learned some of this from SRSrocco. He wasn't entirely wrong. He is just wrong about technology in general.

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=3689#comment-320432

Shelby wrote:
Fully connected mesh networks are thermodynamically inefficient. Nature prefers the hub-and-spoke, i.e bifurcating tree like the internet and mass transport topology.

Ditto suburbia is economically inefficient. So with the coming debt defaults, I think we will see the end of suburbia and it will be more profitable to provide wireless service only big cities and mass transport. Outliers will pay much more. I think I had read that asian carriers, such as in Philippines are much more profitable, because the population density is so much higher, and they roll out high-end technologies only in the major cities, on a lag from the western world, as the technology gets cheaper.

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=3689#comment-320441

@Andy Freeman:
Low population density has lower economies-of-scale for just about everything, efficiency of errands, roads, transportation, electric grid, parks & playgrounds, service businesses, etc.. All all the infrastructure has to be maintained, and much of the infrastructure in the USA very old and crumbling. Suburbia was subsidized by federal money for highways as an extension of FDR’s New Deal politics after WW2, which made USA highly dependent on oil for transportation. There was always a political incentive to create more highways, because those with land along the routes would see the value of their land instantly jump by 1000%. This was fueled with debt, which is now coming due. We will have a reversion to mean towards densification, with the coming debt contraction. Many of those houses built in this housing bubble, will be left to pasture.

P.S. I don’t believe in AGW nor “peak oil” frauds. All of the world’s oil production is nationalized, so I don’t trust the data on reserves nor the incentive for exploration.

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=3689&cpage=1#comment-320503

Suburbia continuing forever would be perpetual motion.

@LS:
I disagree that USA can continue to subsidize the "country". Many didn't object to collectivist highways, FHA, Freddie Mac, etc.. while the dollar was the reserve currency making it possible to borrow from the rest of the world. But that is not sustainable, and we've reached the actuarial limit, especially given our population age pyramid contains a boomer bulge reaching the "scale down" and "move closer to conveniences" age. Including regulatory capture, I discussed via email with the statistician MW Hodges that the total govt share of the national income is likely north of 75% in the USA (if we had complete data) and provably north of 50% (with limited available data), or perhaps 90+% on an actuarial basis (but we don't have data to prove it).

My personal thought is suburbia appears to be a idealized lovefest with the agricultural age, sans the agricultural economy (local production of food) an that would sustain it. Idealized because profitable agriculture involves lots of mud, because it is not cost efficient to concrete all the pathways. Those who want to live in the country will either have to subsidize themselves, or do agriculture. Apparently the FDA and Monsanto are determined to monopolize agriculture.

I don't view this as a bad outcome, rather a necessary optimization of specialization. Cities are more dynamically interconnected and superficially social. And the country will still be there for those who want to pay for it or who want to escape that technology hum.

@Andy Freeman:
Could you make a specific economic case where suburbs are more efficient?

I was expecting this response:

Efficiency depends on what you want

If everybody could have what they want, then no one would be rich, and the world would be perfect without the concept of cost nor thermodynamics. Apologies for the forceful reply, but it is an absurd delusion that violates all science, to assert that efficiency is correlated with desire. Refute my link please.

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Major cost of suburbia is not fuel

Post  Shelby on Sat Sep 03, 2011 9:00 am

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=3689&cpage=3#comment-321003

Fuel is not the major cost of suburbia, which each person can verify as percentage of their family expenses. The major cost of suburbia is the lower economy-of-scale and costly duplication of everything, restaurants, fire departments, parks, electric/internet/cable/wireless grid, sewers, drainage, roads, infrastructure maintenance, etc.. Refer to the data I presented in my prior reply to Bob.

“Peak oil” does not translate to peak hydrocarbon motor fuel

Also, CNG or LPG can power any existing car with a $1000 conversion kit, Honda offers a CNG Civic, many fleets have already been converted, and Chesapeake is installing 1000 fueling stations now.

There will never be a shortage of hydrocarbon, because it is integral to the Carbon cycle of the earth. Carlin understood.

I think "peak oil" is another lie promulgated by the same interests that gave us the AGW lie, e.g. we find out yesterday that Venezuela has more oil than Saudi Arabia. For those into conspiracy theories, King Hubbert who first promulgated the peak oil theory, created (listen to 16min) Technocracy, Inc. in 1933, whose purposes was to replace the free market system with one top-down controlled by technical experts. Sound familiar to AGW? Now we see EPA with aid of POTUS executive orders shutting down coal plants due to the bogus AGW "global warming threat", without any enabling law other than an arguably unconstitutional overreaching of executive branch powers.

@Winter: This might convince you of Germany's vulnerability.

Local implementation of the end of property rights and the role of peak oil, global warming

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=3689&cpage=3#comment-321030

I am trying to get a workable model for what appears to be major paradigm shift for the world.

I am listening to a roundtable discussion (some PhDs) about property rights and the local implementation of global Agenda 21, and it contains some data points that were new for me. I am skeptical of their perspective in the sense I don't want to be a victim of irrational fear-mongering (which is what they claim is being used). If anyone is interested in this, perhaps they could share their analysis of its relevance or irrelevance, if any, to current state-of-affairs with suburbia, debt crisis, and the economics thereof that may be forcing monopolization of industry in general. I haven't worked it all out in my mind yet in the sense of having irrefutable data and testing all sides of all hypothesis, so I hesitated to share it, but it is also somewhat more informative than any other roundtable on property rights I remember.

I suppose I would want to test the theory that this is a natural outcome of the decline of the industrial age, as vested interests who are incapable of transforming their antiquated industrial capital to the knowledge (software) age, are naturally resorting to politics to force the value of their capital, which results in zero-sum game theory that drags humanity down with the evaporation of their progressively useless capital. I welcome anyone who wants to point out that I am being overly dramatic, and instinctively I want to view this as a great honor to be a small part of the open source age, perhaps with software (and the freedom-of-information spread that is deriving from it) being the only or a significant way to lead humanity out of such a morass. Okay I let you all fire away and I won't be hurt by your candor.

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Karl Denninger on Thorium

Post  Shelby on Sat Sep 17, 2011 10:56 pm

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=194280

We can replace all of the imported fuel we use for transportation without increasing our coal consumption at all over present levels. Best of all not only do we have lots of thorium that we've "thrown away" in the ash pile of existing coal plants coal itself contains enough thorium to self-fuel the reactors on a forward-going basis as well!

That is a path that has a five hundred year expected lifetime at expected population growth rates in the United States (about 1% a year) given our proved reserves and does not require increasing existing consumption of the given resource -- including the coal -- since we're replacing the electrical generation we now do with coal at the same time we use the coal for synfuel feedstock. As such it will not trash the existing market demand picture. It is a technology that we know will work with the remaining engineering challenges (and there are some!) all being known quantities. The big hurdles are political

Also Thorium doesn't produce the hellish dangerous plutonium, and weapon's grade material.

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Bottle lights in Philippines

Post  Shelby on Tue Sep 20, 2011 5:43 am

http://youtu.be/SBWi3NtND68

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Oil exploration and production increasing in the Americas

Post  Shelby on Wed Sep 21, 2011 3:16 pm

http://www.infowars.com/new-oil-reserves-could-push-americas-ahead-of-middle-east/

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As I have often stated or written, we have peak "cheap oil", not peak oil

Post  Shelby on Tue Oct 25, 2011 4:11 pm

http://silverstockreport.com/2011/peak-oil-peak-silver.html

Oil will peak when we find an alternative fuel, not before.

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Lindsey Williams proves peak oil is false

Post  Shelby on Wed Dec 21, 2011 12:04 am

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W32daRa9unE&feature=player_detailpage#t=150s

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=QHHW4b21ErU#t=25s (images)

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Nuclear Could be Safe, and Solar is Bankruptcy

Post  Shelby on Fri Feb 03, 2012 10:06 am

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32859.html#comment145963

Shelby wrote:
DCarson, in all due respect, scientists can design safe nuclear plants, there are already sealed ones designed by Toshiba that get buried and use solid sodium salts and thus can't melt down. Also it is probably the case that we could use Thorium and have must less dangerous by products, but the military establishment doesn't want that, because they want the weapon's grade material.

In short, we don't have a free market in nuclear. TPTB are controlling the quality they want us to have.

As for uneconomic energy such as solar, even at $4 per watt system cost, it can't compete with coal and other forms of energy. Even if you pay as high as 20 cents per kilowatt-hour, you will be lucky to average 5 hours per day of full power out of your panels (net of all electrical losses of which there are numerous factors, go to windsun.com), so that is $4 per 5 x 365 / 1000 = 1.8 kilowatt hour per year. So that means you will recover the cost of your panels in $4 / $0.20 = 20 years, which exceeds their usable lifetime, not to mention batteries which die in 5 years.

And if you had invested that same money for 20 years, it would be several times in value.

Investing in solar panels is bankruptcy, and this will be evident once the debt subsidy of the central banks is removed and the western profligacy evaporates.

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Thorium

Post  Shelby on Thu Feb 09, 2012 12:02 am

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/marin-katusa/why-not-thorium-the-other-nuclear-fuel

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Re: Peak Oil Nonsense

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