Peak Oil Nonsense

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More EROEI nonsense

Post  Shelby on Mon Jun 21, 2010 9:49 pm

See my comments at bottom of this article:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article20400.html

Shelby wrote:My rebuttal to the prior comment "ultra-deep will not combat peak oil" follows.

1) The fact that we are pulling oil from 18,000 ft below sealevel (13,000 ft below seabed) means that oil is not a fossil fuel and is in fact an endless stream of oil generated by heat and pressures inside the earth. How could dead organisms get down that deep?

2) There is no way you can tell me that is takes billions of barrels of oil energy to place a 21" diameter bore and casing into the earth 13,000 ft and build a aircraft carrier size rig up on top. Nonsense. Just use your common sense dude, and stop listing to all the propaganda from the media who want to blame this coming monetary crisis on a fiction called "peak oil" (just as they lied to us about Global Warming, google "Climategate"), and see the temperature/CO2 charts near bottom of this post:

http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/knowledge-f9/book-ultimate-truth-t148.htm#3159

There is a very simple explanation for the Hubbard curve, and simply that it became cheaper to produce oil outside the USA. Simple economics. And if there is any world peak and decline in production (there is not yet, only projections), then it will be because of mis-allocation of capital due to the failure of the Ultimate Marget Regulator:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article20263.html

But people are too stupid, and they fall for the misdirection of blame fed to you by TPTB:

http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/health-f5/preparing-for-coming-crisis-t41-45.htm#3254

===============
ADD: Peak oil will be caused by new energy paradigm

Shelby wrote:Eventually the declining EROEI of oil production, will be displaced by a more efficient energy source, such as nuclear. But that will be a good thing.

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BP spill is evidence of abiotic oil

Post  Shelby on Wed Jul 07, 2010 8:08 pm

1 billion bbls of oil in the BP oil spill field:

http://jasonhommelforum.com/forums/showthread.php?p=54126#post54126

That is 11+ years of world consumption in just one well.

Ask yourself why was the Yukos CEO imprisoned in Russia.

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BP's Thunderhorse

Post  Shelby on Sat Jul 10, 2010 11:42 pm

1. Thunderhorse is deeper than claimed for this Maconda spill well (23,000 ft stated by Simmons):

http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Thunder_Horse_Oil_Field&oldid=364057531#Discovery_and_development

The Thunder Horse discovery well was drilled in 1999 on Mississippi Canyon block 778. It was drilled to a depth of 25,770 feet (7,850 m) from the drillship Discoverer Enterprise, hitting three intervals of oil.

A second well was drilled in block 822, 1.5 miles (2.4 km) southeast of the initial discovery, reaching a depth of 29,000 feet (8,800 m) in November 2000 and also encountered three primary intervals of oil.

In February 2001 a new field known as Thunder Horse North was drilled in block 776, approximately 5 miles northwest of the original field. This well reached 26,000 feet (7,900 m) and again met three intervals of oil.

At Thunderhorse they drilled all the way through the oil pockets to determine their vertical depth. Apparently they didn't do that at Maconda, maybe because they were seeing pressure problems?

2. Total production from Thunderhorse field has declined by only 20% from 250,000 to 175,000 bbls per day (from 7 wells), and appears to be from water intrusion in the south wells (north is producing to full capacity without water problems):

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/52659
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Thunder_Horse_Oil_Field&oldid=364057531#Discovery_and_development

3. Note ExxonMobil is 25% partner on Thunderhorse (maybe BP couldn't cut costs there as carelessly?):

http://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/crazy_horse/

I had read or heard recently that BP's cost cutting had turned the North Sea into a non-producing "rust bowl". It appears as though cost cutting on Maconda is what fated it to fail, along with the high pressure. The Thunderhorse wells are averaging 17405 psi (120 MPa), and Lindsey says the confirmed pressure at Maconda is 40,000, but the highest number I had seen elsewhere was 9,000 to 11,000. So we still don't know if high pressure is what caused the Maconda problems. Given that BP did not drill a relief well along side the main well, did not use the correct thickness for casing, did not put O-rings in the casing, did not do the correct concreting, etc., then I think it is more likely that BP intended for Maconda to fail.

4. I read some where at above links that 10 billion bbls have been proven up in deep water in Gulf recently, and with claimed potential at 30 billion. With Thunderhorse producing 365 x 0.175 million = 64 million bbls per year now, it is roughly producing in one year, 1 days world of global oil consumption. So we would need dozens, if not hundreds, of these huge fields to sustain world oil consumption. The world is consuming nearly 30 billion bbls of oil per year.

5. That these deep wells yield oil and lots of other molten stuff, it seems to support the theory that oil is created by high pressures and heat deep in the earth's mantle, then it seeps upwards into fields. So perhaps oil is regenerating. Maybe we just need to drill more of the earth's crust to find more places where the oil is seeping up. We haven't drilled even 5% of the gulf, much less the entire oceans nor even 5% of the land area of the world. What is the way to make oil peak and make it more expensive (so you can crash the global economy and implement your world govt)? Force the production to be in deep water, by blocking all drilling on the mainland. I think Lindsey is correct about Alaska and Dakotas having oil fields larger than Saudi Arabia.

6. Thunderhorse could supply the entire oil consumption for the Philippines, a country with a population of 100 million and reasonably enough modern in the cities.

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Energy non-crisis solved

Post  Shelby on Wed Sep 15, 2010 1:52 am

Convert your vehicle to CNG and all the potential threats are solved!


  1. Storage cost of roughly $2 per L, since CNG has 25% energy density of diesel and 3.78 L / gallon, this is roughly $30 per gallon.
  2. Half-life of natural gas oxidation in atmosphere is 7 years, but it isn't exposed to oxygen in CNG form in a tank, so figure the storage life is many years at least.
  3. Build a methane generator which converts human+animal feces, food, and even paper waste to biogas, so you don't need a big compressed storage tank. You can then buy a compressor to fill your vehicle CNG tanks. And you can power your home on the uncompressed methane. Note that if you don't odor to your biogas, you have danger of killing yourself. Note the overflow from the methane generator is compost fertilizer for growing food!
  4. Honda makes a natural gas car: http://automobiles.honda.com/civic-gx/ (thanks Karl for the tip)


I don't know why I didn't point this out before, because I have been aware of taxi conversions to CNG in the Philippines for several years.

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Coming depression will relieve demand for oil (unless we go into war)

Post  Shelby on Sun Oct 17, 2010 9:21 am

Read entire article at top of page of the following links, and also these specific linked comments:

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/future-chaos-there-no-plan-b/46331#comment-91399
http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/future-chaos-there-no-plan-b/46331?page=1#comment-91426
http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/future-chaos-there-no-plan-b/46331?page=1#comment-91429

I didn't realize the abandoned Saudi fields still have 50% of the oil down there! Essentially that pulsed water injection technology recovers more oil because the water is not dispersed into (mixed with) the oil:

http://eori.uwyo.edu/downloads/EOR_IOR_Jackson2010/Powerwave_PTTC(081810).pdf#page9

China will crash once oil gets too expensive-- the Great Depression will relieve demand for oil (unless we go into war):

http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/economics-f4/inflation-or-deflation-t9-450.htm#3775

Some may appreciate the list of books from 3min point forward in this video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMVseuagYt8

This guy in CT is sucking his incoming air for his residential aircon through underground tunnels in order to pre-cool it. Apparently saves a lot of power, because the underground stores the night time temperature. if you cut the temperature DIFFERENTIAL by 2/3 (e.g. 94 - 70F to 78 - 70F for Atlanta in summer perhaps), the power cost should be 2/3 less. This may be of less benefit in very humid climates where the air temp doesn't drop as much at night. I don't know what % of your cost structure is power, but it will probably increase over time due to developing world rising to compete for energy and the rising cost (lower EROEI) of extracing oil and coal.

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re: world's population

Post  Shelby on Sun Oct 17, 2010 1:43 pm

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17644.html#comment95551

Shelby wrote:Christian L. wrote:
"...I agree that the worlds population is getting out of hand and causing many problems..."

That westerners believe such erroneous propaganda, is really sad. We need more people (more independent actors and possibilities), not less:

http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/knowledge-f9/book-ultimate-truth-chapter-6-math-proves-go-forth-multiply-t159-15.htm#3640

And the "problems" with energy are non-problems, but actually normal change that is part of the trend of the universe towards maximum possibilities (disorder, aka entropy), as dictated by the 2nd law of thermodynamics (discovered in 1856!):

http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/knowledge-f9/book-ultimate-truth-chapter-6-math-proves-go-forth-multiply-t159-15.htm#3748

The Malthusian propaganda (e.g. global warming, climate change, peak energy, etc) are lies promulgated by the mass media, which since 1980s has been concentrated into ownership by a few rich families such as Ted Turner, who is allegedly the financier of the Georgia Guidestones:

http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Georgia_Guidestones&oldid=390241904#Reactions

I have interpreted the symbolic meaning of those stone inscriptions:

http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/economics-f4/changing-world-order-t32-90.htm#3515

Consider the benefit of trusting nature and living in harmony with it, instead of thinking we can control the future (e.g. birth control pills at young age that turn our women into men). Let's stop the insanity.

What is causing the world's problems is mankind's love of debt and pooling decisions and resources, i.e. the fiat system. If you want to read everything I have wrote on this site so you can come up to speed on understanding the concept and math:

http://www.google.com/search?q=site:marketoracle.co.uk+Shelby+Moore

Cheers.

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Hallucination

Post  Shelby on Fri Oct 22, 2010 1:12 pm

We are hallucinating if we think humans can destroy this planet earth:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGOBm2J4tn0

Do you know that Thatcher broke the coal unions using the Global Warming lie? That is why the UK funded that false science.

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Rick Rule agrees with me that Natural Gas is the answer

Post  Shelby on Sat Oct 23, 2010 4:58 pm

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qCQ5ERKV9P8

What I had written:

http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/economics-f4/peak-oil-nonsense-t102-15.htm#3574

You must listen to Rick from the 14 min point of this:

http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2010-1007-1.mp3

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Peak Obfuscation

Post  Shelby on Sat Oct 30, 2010 9:02 pm


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Re: Peak Oil Nonsense

Post  Shelby on Sun Oct 31, 2010 2:21 am

mass of Earth = 5.9742 × 10^1024 kilograms (thats is 1024 zeros!)
mass of all humans on earth = 3.5 x 10^11 kilograms

There is no way that a mass can deplete a mass that is 10^100 times larger (that is 100 zeros!).

Malthusians are utterly nonsensical, I don't care how many charts they masturbate with.

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Shale natural gas issues are not really relevant over the long-term

Post  Shelby on Mon Nov 01, 2010 4:43 am

I don't care about shale natural gas, there is enough natural gas in my butt to power the world.

Beans, beans, the more you eat, the more you fart, and the more you fart, the better you feel, so eat your beans at every meal.

Seriously though, natural gas is very plentiful at the ocean floors. There are huge fields in the Gulf of Mexico, and they are finding all around the Pacific ocean islands.

Natural gas is also made from anaerobic decomposition of any organic matter. When you think about anaerobic not requiring oxygen, then think about formation deep under the earth's surface, perhaps from heat and pressure with the basic building blocks of carbon, hydrogen, etc

Just above the earth's surface, running out of natural gas is impossible until you run out of organic matter.

And then you have to deal with the apparent fact that natural gas is produced abundantly and renewably within the earth's mantle.

Bottom line is that the Earth is a mass which is:

10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

Times greater than the mass of all the human body matter on earth.

The probability that we can not exploit the nearly infinite amount of energy in that relatively larger mass is very near to 0.

The energy contained within mass is mass X speed-of-light squared. That is unfathomably large.

Malthusians have a deficiency in math.

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One medium size river of oil will run the entire globe

Post  Shelby on Tue Nov 02, 2010 8:19 am

http://www.evsroll.com/Peak_Oil_Myth.html

World Oil production and use is as much as a river 5,500 cfs (155 cms)



Just to give some perspective of flow rates:

64,750 cu ft/s Niagra Falls
85,000 cfs Colorado River
700,000 cfs to around 200,000 cfs Mississippi River
2,500,278 cu ft/s Yangtze River

So what is more plentiful on earth, carbon or water?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon#Occurrence

Carbon is the fourth most abundant chemical element in the universe by mass after hydrogen, helium, and oxygen.

Malthusians are kooks.

=============
1 cu foot = 28.3168466 liter
1 barrel of oil = 159 liters
5500 cu ft/sec x 60 sec/min x 60 min/hour x 24 hours/day x 1 bbl/159 lites x 28.3 liters/cu.ft = 84,579,623 barrels/day

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Peak Oil Religion causes Starvation

Post  Shelby on Mon Jan 17, 2011 6:40 am

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article25621.html

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Alternative religion

Post  Shelby on Sun Jan 23, 2011 5:23 am

Peak oil delusion is the same disease as other "not trusting in God/nature" dystopia envy.

You can include "rights" in that disease, as I commented here:

http://jasonhommelforum.com/forums/showthread.php?p=58299#post58299

Shelby wrote:(animal/plant/rocks/human) "rights" is socialism, only the free market of random outcomes is in harmony with thermodynamics (the natural law)

It ties in with the discussion of IQ, because any one can prove a point with data, when that data is skewed (and all data is skewed relative to the long-tail distribution, i.e. what hasn't been measured yet). And it relates to IQ, because the ability to train oneself to solve complex abstract set operations, is very similar to focusing on the head of a pin, and thus the scientists want to view the world as full of "useless eaters" that really can't think for themselves. They don't see that every person's IQ is absolutely necessary in the free market. There isn't one best form of IQ or knowledge. Thus the Ivy League, Mensa, etc are a form of monopolistic (anti-free market) clubs. It would be best for these people to not compare themselves based on IQ, but each find their unique calling in the free market, which is not to view the other 95% of the population as inferior. It is quite obvious that such delusion is an alternative religion.

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Re: Peak Oil Nonsense

Post  Shelby on Mon Jan 24, 2011 2:14 pm

My crayon is yellow, the sun is yellow, the sun is my crayon.

The above is an example of insufficient data that paints the entirely incorrect conclusion.

No one knows how much oil there is. For one thing, we know the investment in finding oil has been depressed by the fact that 6/7ths of the world's population was kept in poverty since at least 1971 (or let's say 1980) by the strong dollar policy (fiat system + bribes of the politics in developing world, read "Confessions of an Economic Hitman"), thus suppressing the oil price and as Rick Rule says, "cure for low prices, is low prices", meaning that eventually supply runs out and prices must increase in order to stimulate new supply.

Rather what will cause Peak Oil to be true, is the rise of a more efficient energy, probably a nuclear era. That is just a phase-out due to competition, but it will be an illusion in the sense that there was no lack of oil on earth. How do I know? Again I refer you to George Carlin's video for a little common sense wakeup call:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eScDfYzMEEw (P.S. I can find some expression of Biblical wisdom even from an atheist, via the power of discernment)

As for silver, we know we don't have the entire data. The system is trying its best to hide the data from us. But we have the wisdom of common sense, which says that if no one in the world is using silver as money, and since we know silver is money since beginning of time, then we know that silver has to go up in price. We also know that silver is mined out of the ground at less than 15 ratio to gold, so we know the silver price is too low as the ratio is currently 49. Etc, etc. Also we know that when the price of something is too low, then the supply will be too low.

About "rights", even this atheist gets it correct, the Bible does not give us the rights in the Bill of Rights:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWiBt-pqp0E&feature=player_detailpage#t=4:25m (start at 4:25min)

Rights are some abstract created by men. In the Biblical natural world, you have 0 rights. Read the Bible and find one statement of rights? You won't find it.

========
ADD: we have one right, that is we can always pray to our father

Rights are like insurance, a futures contract against God's possibilities, they are an attempt to replace God.


==============
Steve brought to our attention that suburbia was only possible because of cheap oil.

During that time, petrol was heavily taxed in Europe, so Europe had no economic incentive to develop the same level of suburban sprawl.

It seems that America's greatest strength, its vast land resources, was cleverly turned into its greatest weakness by the banksters (Rockefeller and their central strategic planners), who subsidized our cheap oil price by stealing from Europe (and retarding demand from the developing world with strong dollar policy).

Clever bastards. They harvest what they see as theirs. And we are too stupid to discern the difference between a peak due to geology versus due to socialism and fiat.

That is what I was trying to explain to Steve, that the root cause is the fiat system, not geology. Now I know he can cite a zillion statistics, but as I said, you can't trust the statistics, because the oil companies and nationalized oil industry controls the production of this data.

Someone says X is yellow, then Y is yellow, does the data of yellow tell you that the Y is X? Statistics lie.

Socrates I think said, never say there isn't a black swan, if you've never seen one. We can't say anything about how much oil there is out there, and as I had claculated before we only need a small river of oil (not even a single Niagara Falls is needed) to supply world's entire needs.

=================
Summary
=================

Here is a little thought experiment.

Why was petrol in Europe priced at 4 to 5x (via taxation) the price of gasoline in USA, while the strong dollar (see "Confessions of an Economic Hitman") policy caused the retardation of the developing of 6/7ths of world population and thus retardation of the demand for oil?

Thus the central planners subsidized a too cheap price for oil in the USA? Why?

To cause a suburban bubble that will pop and render America's greatest strength (its vast land resources and individualism) into a weakness.

The plan is nearing completion.


Last edited by Shelby on Wed Jan 26, 2011 5:25 am; edited 2 times in total

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Re: Peak Oil Nonsense

Post  Shelby on Mon Jan 24, 2011 11:10 pm

Alright, can you, Shelby, confirm these facts?

The bakken (sp?) has 3-4 billion barrels of recoverable oil?
http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1911

But the USA uses 20 million/day?
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/ene_oil_con-energy-oil-consumption

Meaning that the great bakken will only provide

3000/20 = 150 days worth of USA oil consumption??????

Is this correct?

J

Although I already answered you in the abstract, I will also respond to that specific datum. Yes I think that data is likely correct.

I think it is pretty obvious from where our military is, where most of the known oil is. I suspect that our government knows there are huge untapped oil resources in the Caspian Sea.

On the abstract, it takes years for us to find a sunken treasure ship under water but above seabed floor, thus common sense tells us there is no way we have mapped and test drilled the entire surface of the earth. I know we use imaging techniques to map areas, but as you know from our mining investments, that doesn't always tell you where the stuff is. And these imaging studies require more and more detail and follow up in order to get more probability of being accurate.

There is probably 100 times more oil in the Middle East alone than what we have already extracted. It is just common sense, we haven't drilled a hole every square mile of every desert in Middle East.

And I suspect the reason we have not done that, is not only because the price of oil has been too low, but because there isn't enough demand for oil, we have too much already. That is evident by the low price.

I think it absolutely insane these people saying we don't have enough oil, when the fact is that the price says we have too much. When I see the price consistently at $200 in todays dollars, then we will see the oil flow from the Caspian Sea, more holes drilled in the Middle East, etc..

This view of the earth as if we found all the oil that we are ever going to find, is like saying we already mined most of the silver we are ever going to find, or copper, or anything. Why is oil special? Oh yeah, because it comes from a limited supply of dinasours right? Talk about believing in fairy tales, bwhahaha.

In short, our government likely views international (especially Middle East) oil reserve data as a national security secret. The actions of our military speaks loudly to this assumption.

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EROEI is void argument (at least long-term)

Post  Shelby on Tue Jan 25, 2011 7:02 am

I had some additional thoughts on Jason's question. Sorry yesterday my mind was deep in programming language theory, so these thoughts didn't come until I woke up.

The data Jason quoted is like all reserve data for every mined commodity, based on economically recoverable resources. As the price goes up faster than the costs to extract it, the resource size increases.

So this brings us full circle to SRSrocco's (peak oiler's) main point, which is the assertion that EROEI for extracting oil has declined, to less than 1, or at least low enough that the rate of finding new discoveries can't produce enough net energy output to keep pace with demand as higher EROEI wells decline.

Well for the first time, I am going blow that theory to smithereens.

The abstract rebuttal is quite simple: oil is a replaceable commodity.

Every commodity is replaceable, but some commodities are less so than others. For example, gold can only be replaced by silver when it comes to store-of-value function of money, but silver is a poor substitute in some respects because it is bulkier, lower stocks-to-flows ratio, thus more volatile, etc.. But actually those differing attributes are what makes trading the gold/silver ratio so important. It is how the market opportunity cost is regulated (i.e. measured, feedback loop, and thus annealed). I will need to go into that one day, but not in this post.

To lubricate your mind before I make the slam dunk points, consider why do we mine gold, when it has an EROEI of 0. We mine gold because it has a very high utility as a store-of-value. It (with silver in the bimetallic ratio) is the only way to regulate opportunity cost and keep governments honest (i.e. measured, feedback loop, and thus annealed).

We can for a fact run cars on compressed methane (farts) with $500 (if produced in high volume) conversion kits. Toyota sells a car that runs on CNG (aka propane). We can for a fact create all the methane, or oil for that matter, we need from nuclear power plants. Contrary to erroneous data from peak oilers, nuclear has a very high EROEI (the large costs are regulatory and solvable fuel disposal issues, not actual energy costs).

You see oil and methane are simply carbon and hydrogen bonds. Energy in creates bonds, break the bonds (burn it with oxygen) you get energy out.

The basic argument of EROEI falls flat on its face, once you have high EROEI primary energy source with which to convert different forms of carbon and hydrogen to the desired forms.

Carbon and hydrogen are two of the most abundant elements on the planet.

We ain't running short of carbon and hydrogen any time soon folks. Brwwhahaha.

=========
ADD: we will likely have a transition crisis, because the central planners have so messed up the market feedback loops, that the investment in these new paradigms has been delayed by decades. And unfortunately (or fortunately from my perspective), demographics kept moving forward. But of course, I think Rockefeller et all planned it this way. They need the crisis to get their world government.

So I can't assert that EROEI is void in short-term. The peak oilers may look very smart for a while. But I think they are missing the bigger picture analysis, which is necessary for us to stop being manipulated like sheep.

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EROEI and zebras

Post  Shelby on Sat Jan 29, 2011 8:52 pm

...We have 3 big problems coming down on the SUBURBAN LEECH AND SPEND ECONOMY:

1) PEAK OIL
2) FALLING EROI
3) LAND EXPORT MODEL
...

Oh so the fiat system (debt) is not a problem nor a cause of the leech and spending?

...The FALLING EROI is an ongoing event...

CPI fell too, because food, housing, fuel, college education and just about everything was removed from the calculation.

"Facts" tell one story.

...TAR SANDS in Canada is a last ditch effort for people who live in a LIQUID FUELS economy to hold on to...

Debt is the last ditch effort. Those of us who own silver and no debt, will get as much oil as we want.

That is unless the government sets the price too low with market controls and forces "share and share alike" rationing.

You phrase the logical predicate backwards (because it serves your bunker philosophy and religion).

...Big exporting oil countries have looked at the USA and EUROPE and realized they would like to live the same way instead of riding around on camels, horses, and donkeys. In doing so, they had to RAMP UP their infrastructure, automobile and truck systems. They have added more DOMESTIC OIL CONSUMPTION as their OIL PRODUCTION FALLS.

Debt = living beyond one's means and taking capital away from needed investment

Sounds like a fiat problem. But you prefer to rephrase into an geology problem.

Let's see which problem started first? Central banking 300 years ago, and especially rampant since 1920s, or national confiscation of oil resources starting in the 1970s?

Hmmm, nationalization (socialism) had nothing to do with it?

...I love fresh air, sunshine and high quality food from our own hands.

I do too. That is why I live 10 minutes from it.

I own a 100mpg motorcycle in case we have war with Iran or otherwise the govts don't allow the price of oil to rise and cause shortages.

I hope they let price of oil rise to $500 per barrel, then I can buy it, and all the stupid debtors can't.

That won't be peak oil, even you will claim it is. It will simply be the normal popping of a debt bubble. I wonder why you feel the need to call a horse a zebra, when it doesn't have stripes?

Could it be because you want to live on a safari.

...People will continue to believe the TITANIC is UNSINKABLE....right up to the time, it SINKS.

Please don't attribute (by insinuation since your post was directed to "Jason and Shelby") words to me that I never stated.

Who said that? I think the debt bubble will collapse and it will cause either very high oil prices (and reduced demand) or rationing, depending on what the bonehead govts do.

There is no outcome that can prove you correct. Even shortages of oil won't prove you correct. I will claim it is a popping debt bubble with bonehead government rationing and price controls. You will claim the EROEI of geology of the entire earth changed, even though we have no evidence what would happen if oil every where hadn't been nationalized and pimped for debt to the globalists.

If you are saying that you will fair better than those of us who can't grow our own food, if the govt will force price controls and rationing, then I say yes if the govt does that, then you may fair better. But then again, I may fair even better by not being inside the USA in that case. Where I am, people know how to live without electricity and survive on grass, bananas, and coconuts. And I didn't have to waste years preparing. I only had to move here and rent a house. I have been able to spend all that time preparing computer projects instead. Should we compare who comes out of this with more results?

Sorry afaics, you haven't presented any new logic.

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Peak SUPPLY never occurs (without falling demand)

Post  Shelby on Fri Feb 04, 2011 4:04 am

Let me explain it a different way, which may help those who are not into abstract inductive logic.

What is "peaking" is the western demand, as the boomers (the western population bubble) has passed its peak earning capability.

The level of supply that was built up was signaled by the demand of the westerners, because until about 5 years ago, the other 6/7ths of the world's population could not afford to compete on price and create a significant demand (at the marginal price).

Thus the supply and the resource exploration has not yet reacted to the imminent demand that will be coming from the developing world (6/7ths of global population). Because supply is signaled by price-- marginal price to be exact. Those who have studied Economics 101 in college (and got a 99% grade as I did as a freshman at LSU), will know that is a true statement.

So thus population is not peaking and thus energy supply is not peaking. As energy price rises, energy supply will rise (but maybe on a lag, after great suffering, due to the wrong price signals by the strong dollar fraud for 3 decades).

Now if oil gets replaced by say nuclear or others things (even perhaps efficiency with nanotech), then oil could peak, only because the supply came from replacement energy sources/paradigms.

I say there is never a peak SUPPLY anything, meaning that supply always meets demand. If demand peaks, then yes supply peaks. Which is precisely what is happening right now. The demand at the marginal price is peaking, because boomers are toast. As the developing world income rises (as the fraud of the dollar fiat dies), then marginal price will increase and energy supply will rise to meet demand (but maybe on a painful lag, due to plenty of wrong price signals from the strong dollar fraud).

The owner of a certain Mint that has $850,000 Mint that can't be turned on because they thought they could get a higher price than they can actually get, can now personally painfully attest to the misallocation that non-free market pricing causes. That sort of misallocation is what SRSrocco is documenting. Good job Steve! I just wish you would go take Economics 101 so you would understand what I wrote above, or at least rationally open your mind to the logic and see if you can disprove it or otherwise accept it.Also I should have said "as REAL price increases". Nominal price increase is not meaningful, if everything else is rising in price too, then there has been no price rise. Well nominal price rise is meaningful, if westerners are not buying gold and silver, because it means their demand will decline because they can't afford those rising prices.

Also I should have said "as REAL price increases". Nominal price increase is not meaningful, if everything else is rising in price too, then there has been no price rise. Well nominal price rise is meaningful, if westerners are not buying gold and silver, because it means their demand will decline because they can't afford those rising prices.

Silver and gold supply is declining because the prices are not high enough to incentivize massive new exploration. You can't really measure demand for gold and silver, because it is not a consumed commodity. You can only measure their relative prices. When the junior miners are +1000%, perhaps then we can say that exploration has been incentivized.

Economic geology reserves is a pseudo-science. I am just saying that geology has very little to do with it, because the earth is a much bigger place than humans. We are but a speck on the surface. Think about it.

Demand drives supply, via the marginal price.

Please see my next post in the Peak Oil thread.

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correct, but not peak geology

Post  Shelby on Wed Feb 09, 2011 8:05 pm

In what can be the "Holy Grail" moment for the peak oil movement, Wikileaks has just released 4 cables that may confirm that as broadly speculated by the peak oil "fringe", the theories about an imminent crude crunch may be in fact true. As the Guardian reports on 4 just declassified cables, "The US fears that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude oil exporter, may not have enough reserves to prevent oil prices escalating, confidential cables from its embassy in Riyadh show. The cables, released by WikiLeaks, urge Washington to take seriously a warning from a senior Saudi government oil executive that the kingdom's crude oil reserves may have been overstated by as much as 300bn barrels – nearly 40%.

1. Wikileaks is being spoon fed info that globalists want it to release.

2. Nationalization of oil by a bunch of spoiled princes with harems, does cause waste, mismanagement, and lack of investment.

3. Yes the price must rise in order to stimulate new investment and new energy paradigm adoption (and overthrow corrupt national govts as the globalists desire for their regional unions).

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who dies first?

Post  Shelby on Sat Feb 26, 2011 9:51 am

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17644.html#comment101469

Shelby wrote:
Mila, since you agree with de-population, would you be willing to be de-populated?

Depopulation is only okay when it doesn't affect us. But the thing about social eugenics is that it always comes back to kill the ones who thought it wouldn't apply to them.

Besides population is not a problem at all. In fact, it is the declining birth rates that have further stressed the western economies.

We have 1000s of times more resources in this earth than we can ever hope to use. People have been predicting peak XXXX since there were were humans, and they have always been wrong. Did you hear about peak whale oil in late 1800s (home lighting oil)? But yet we still light our homes today.

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Peak sanity

Post  Shelby on Sun Mar 06, 2011 10:25 pm

http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/t74p30-love-of-money-self-pleasure-and-false-prophets-in-end-times#4302

So add "Alien Hope", to "Global Warming" and "Peak Civilization" (Peak Energy) set of delusions.

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Re: Peak Oil Nonsense

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