Silver as an investment

Something I wrote in 2008:

http://www.coolpage.com/commentary/economic/shelby/Silver%20Up%20To%205x%20More%20Rare%20Than%20Gold.html

Since then I have learned that the forces of deflation are real. Also realize that even though silver may be more rare than gold by some metrics, that is still a heck of a lot of silver when only a few people in the world are interested in buying silver for investment. However, if you get a mania (i.e. in China or India) about silver, then silver is indeed rare and it will show up in reality.

Jason Hommel explained recently just how precarious silver supply is:

http://silverstockreport.com/2009/tiny-silver-II.html

No one knows how much longer before the silver situation blows up. Months or years? What is your guess?


Note, I started to implement my new trading strategy today:

http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/precious-metals-f6/gold-as-an-investment-t60-30.htm#2007

Some said it will come down to 15+ in Oct dip. Now it go up instead.
Hell lot more difficult to go on long now.

Shelby wrote:Something I wrote in 2008:

http://www.coolpage.com/commentary/economic/shelby/Silver%20Up%20To%205x%20More%20Rare%20Than%20Gold.html

Since then I have learned that the forces of deflation are real. Also realize that even though silver may be more rare than gold by some metrics, that is still a heck of a lot of silver when only a few people in the world are interested in buying silver for investment. However, if you get a mania (i.e. in China or India) about silver, then silver is indeed rare and it will show up in reality.

Jason Hommel explained recently just how precarious silver supply is:

http://silverstockreport.com/2009/tiny-silver-II.html

No one knows how much longer before the silver situation blows up. Months or years? What is your guess?


Note, I started to implement my new trading strategy today:

http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/precious-metals-f6/gold-as-an-investment-t60-30.htm#2007

Hi Shelby,

This "silver will do ......... (whatever) is messing with my head. Silver is currently bouncing around either side of 60:1 Gold. Why? Who are the "silver bugs"? I would suggest they are MAINLY the gold bugs "who swing both ways". Is industrial demand up, down, or sideways? Who knows? Is retail demand lacklustre? Apparently so.

Shelby wrote (insightfully!!):
"How can there be an industrial shortage when we are in a global depression? Only monetary demand for silver will ever cause the huge price rise. I do think that monetary demand will come, but it will come later than gold, because the monetary demand for silver must come from the masses."

AGREED it's about retail, absent an overwhelming surge in industrial demand. So maybe one of the ways to play silver is to take advantage of the lower cost of fabrication (now) while the retail demand is lacklustre and profit from the premium when the next panic occurs. Bearing in mind that the fabricators cannot, beyond a certain point, take advantage of this by increased production due to the usual manufacturing constraints eg. hardware, personnel, CAPEX etc. In this way we have a bet supported by a physical constraint rather than an arbitrary limitation ie. the willingness to press a key on a keyboard.

This approach also has the benefit of keeping us always in metal up to the point where the fabricated product is exchanged for fiat. Provided we match our fabricated metal sales (plus a demand spike premium) with our larger metal purchases (with lower, non-retail premium) we increase our holding of metal.

I am not suggesting that your silver trading strategy is not a winner. I am merely trying to make the point that the name of this game is to own more metal, not more fiat. Aren't we trying to prepare for the BRIEF (I hope) period of time when PMs aren't for sale at any reasonable (insert fiat currency of your choice) price?

Anticipating your objections, you have identified opportunity, using your skills as a programmer to make returns in fiat in the order of 100s of per cent through the application of your knowledge and skills. You can gain as much fiat as you WANT. The world, I think, we are all worried about is one where no amount of fiat gets you what you NEED.

Anticipating another objection, "if X-metal goes to Y-dolllars I will be rich for the rest of my life". I too am intellectually prepared to resist the PTB and hold my metal. That said, I have been reminded recently that this also depends on love. If it comes to sacrificing someone I love, who hasn't accepted the realities we have, to their detriment, I'm not sure the PTB wont shake me out of my positions. That's the trouble with dealing with sociopaths. We have limits, they don't.

FWIW

Angophera

angophera wrote:Hi Shelby,

This "silver will do ......... (whatever) is messing with my head. Silver is currently bouncing around either side of 60:1 Gold. Why? Who are the "silver bugs"? I would suggest they are MAINLY the gold bugs "who swing both ways". Is industrial demand up, down, or sideways? Who knows? Is retail demand lacklustre? Apparently so.

Shelby wrote (insightfully!!):
"How can there be an industrial shortage when we are in a global depression? Only monetary demand for silver will ever cause the huge price rise. I do think that monetary demand will come, but it will come later than gold, because the monetary demand for silver must come from the masses."...

I still agree with that statement (especially with copper so high that by product silver is flowing out the mines), that is why I want to capture the volatility, because I do not think it will be very soon that we have silver default. It can happen at any time, but in reality it will happen when people stampede from Treasury bonds.

angophera wrote:...AGREED it's about retail, absent an overwhelming surge in industrial demand. So maybe one of the ways to play silver is to take advantage of the lower cost of fabrication (now) while the retail demand is lacklustre and profit from the premium when the next panic occurs. Bearing in mind that the fabricators cannot, beyond a certain point, take advantage of this by increased production due to the usual manufacturing constraints eg. hardware, personnel, CAPEX etc. In this way we have a bet supported by a physical constraint rather than an arbitrary limitation ie. the willingness to press a key on a keyboard.

This approach also has the benefit of keeping us always in metal up to the point where the fabricated product is exchanged for fiat. Provided we match our fabricated metal sales (plus a demand spike premium) with our larger metal purchases (with lower, non-retail premium) we increase our holding of metal...

Yes just buy 90% silver dimes, the premiums go crazy when the next panic comes.
I did that in 2008, and was selling for $2 over spot down below $10 spot.
Nevertheless, I do not know how long you will have to wait for that to play out and it is messy to ship and sell etc. If you sell to a large dealer, they take a big chunk of spread.

angophera wrote:...I am not suggesting that your silver trading strategy is not a winner. I am merely trying to make the point that the name of this game is to own more metal, not more fiat. Aren't we trying to prepare for the BRIEF (I hope) period of time when PMs aren't for sale at any reasonable (insert fiat currency of your choice) price?...

I am merely using it so my liquid capital is not idle, while I scale up the internet cafe businesses. I can't dump $300T into internet cafes in even 1 year. It takes time. 12% of $300T, is a nice $3000 per month in income, which is another internet cafe per month.

angophera wrote:...Anticipating your objections, you have identified opportunity, using your skills as a programmer to make returns in fiat in the order of 100s of per cent through the application of your knowledge and skills. You can gain as much fiat as you WANT. The world, I think, we are all worried about is one where no amount of fiat gets you what you NEED.

Anticipating another objection, "if X-metal goes to Y-dolllars I will be rich for the rest of my life". I too am intellectually prepared to resist the PTB and hold my metal. That said, I have been reminded recently that this also depends on love. If it comes to sacrificing someone I love, who hasn't accepted the realities we have, to their detriment, I'm not sure the PTB wont shake me out of my positions. That's the trouble with dealing with sociopaths. We have limits, they don't.

FWIW

Angophera

I think one mistake is betting 100% on a homerun, I would rather take some base hits sometimes too. Internet cafes (and derivatives programs I will develop) will be a form of savings that can't be diluted, no matter what value of fiat does. I been trying to think of ways to diversify, I don't want everything in illiquid physical precious metals holding, then the PTB could corner me.

Shelby wrote:
Since then I have learned that the forces of deflation are real. Also realize that even though silver may be more rare than gold by some metrics, that is still a heck of a lot of silver when only a few people in the world are interested in buying silver for investment. However, if you get a mania (i.e. in China or India) about silver, then silver is indeed rare and it will show up in reality.

HOWDY SHELBY....be careful for what you wish for......I GIVE YOU, YOUR MANIA:

India's HDFC Bk looking at selling silver bars-exec

MUMBAI, Oct 7 (Reuters) - India's HDFC Bank (HDBK.BO), a large gold seller, is looking at offering silver bars for sale in some cities because of interest from investors, a bank executive said on Wednesday. "Silver bars in select cities is an option we are considering," Seshan Ramakrishnan, head of the bank's retail liabilities product group, said in an emailed reply to questions.

HDFC Bank is one of India's top sellers of gold coins and bars for investment, a segment which accounts for about 30 percent of sales in the world's biggest gold market. (Reporting by Ruchira Singh; Editing by John Mair)

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSBOM36068620091007


THINK ABOUT THAT FOR A MINUTE.....Now we got the CHINESE on one hand pushing SILVER on their CITIZENS, now INDIAN CITIZENS asking to buy SILVER BARS. Looks like HDFC BANK is willing to start selling SILVER BARS. We have over 1/3 of the WORLDS POPULATION in just these two countries.

SHELBY....yes...we are going to have DEFLATION in things we OWn.....but INFLATION in things we USE. I believe its HYPERINFLATION FIRST....but not in things we OWN. I hate to say it....BOB PRECTHER needs to go JUMP in a LAKE. The guy plasters his name all over the INTERNET just to keep people sending him a check for the OUT DATED GARBAGE of the WAVE THEORY. He will go down in flames with the US DOLLAR. How MORONS like MAULDIN, PRECHTER, GARTMAN and others get people to part with their HARD EARNED money for their RUBBISH is beyond me.

Watch for a BIG BANK FALIURE.....most likely CITIGROUP. Then we will have fireworks in the GOLD and SILVER market and an ENEMA for the US DOLLAR.

best regards

steve

The announcement about the Indian bank considering offering silver bars "in some cities" is hardly earth shattering and doesn't justify including 100% of their population in the calculation of "new" potential silver demand. Silver was the only true money in China historically. Promoting Silver investment should be a better cultural fit in China.

Gold holds the same position in India's history and it is the case to this day. As Jim Sinclair reminds people Indians buy bullion jewellery by the gram for a small premium over spot and a very small mark-up for fabrication. The wife wears the family's savings "bank account".

Gold sales in India are apparently on an upswing at the moment but the strength of the Rupee could easily account for this increased interest. BTW virtually every currrency on the planet has been rising against the USD recently so for the other, marginal $6.2 billion who live in the rest of the world Gold doesn't look quite as strong as it does in the USA.

Also Silver is a big part of the Indian jewellery fabrication trade (mainly for export) so there is nothing we can teach those guys about the gold vs silver argument.

On the Zerohedge site Project Mayhem (on a personal level he is a serious physical gold bug) is running a very useful and informative discussion about a flash from Professor Fekete advising that gold and silver are NOT in backwardation. Rob Kirby chimes in with a tip that his sources say that parties seeking Gold delivery are being offered FIAT BONUSES off-market to settle for currency rather than physical. In other words a stealth backwardation.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gold-move-not-confirmed-backwardation

No word on whether Kirby's sources offer any similar tales about silver.

This may be the big move everyone is hanging out for but it may also just be another noteworthy step in a process that needs more time to run to its natural conclusion. Personally I am positioning for a substantial uplift in Gold from either a big fall in my home FIAT CURRENCY or a substantial upward re-rating of Gold versus All Currencies ie. a two-fer-one.

Still not sure about silver for 3 reasons:
1. It hasn't led Gold as in times past. So I wonder if it is riding on the coat-tails of Gold?
2. The Gold/Silver ratio is not putting in any powerhouse moves in silver's favour.
3. The Baltic Dry Index is, technically speaking, utterly, utterly f@#*ked again. It flagged the last collapse why not the next one?

My concern is that Industrial demand could climb back into the drivers seat for silver anytime while the average punter forms a queue outside the coin shop and the backlog in fabrication ensures outsize premiums while the wholesale price gets whacked. If your interest is in metal then 70:1 or 80:1 Gold/Silver lets you back in at a good price while you realise a profit in your fabricated silver.

Shelby, I know you can fight your own battles but the triumphalism of SRSrocco strikes me as distasteful. It may also be misleading at a time of heightened nervousness among us little people as the Giants continue to stomp around.

angophera wrote:The announcement about the Indian bank considering offering silver bars "in some cities" is hardly earth shattering and doesn't justify including 100% of their population in the calculation of "new" potential silver demand. Silver was the only true money in China historically. Promoting Silver investment should be a better cultural fit in China.

My concern is that Industrial demand could climb back into the drivers seat for silver anytime while the average punter forms a queue outside the coin shop and the backlog in fabrication ensures outsize premiums while the wholesale price gets whacked. If your interest is in metal then 70:1 or 80:1 Gold/Silver lets you back in at a good price while you realise a profit in your fabricated silver.

Shelby, I know you can fight your own battles but the triumphalism of SRSrocco strikes me as distasteful. It may also be misleading at a time of heightened nervousness among us little people as the Giants continue to stomp around.

Let me INTRODUCE MYSELF.....I am SRSrocco. And no...I don't have an much of an EGO. But, you are free to think whatever you like. Yes, only a few cities right now want SILVER BARS. But this is not the GOVT pushing SILVER as an investment on its citizens like CHINA....these INDIANS are waking up. GIVE IT TIME....everything in time. Nothing happens OVERNIGHT....well maybe a DOLLAR DEVALUATION.

Your point about the STEALTH BACKWARDATION is a good one per KIRBY. KIRBY has good connections, not as many as JIM WILLIE. Don't worry about INDUSTRIAL DEMAND and SILVER....that is BOB PRECTHER NONSENSE. Yes, the DRYSHIPS index is down....and will probably not RETURN EVER. To understand were SILVER is heading one needs to EMPTY their HEADS of GARBAGE about DEFLATION and INDUSTRIAL METALS. Silver does have both aspects, but it is the POOR MANS GOLD. I agree with JIM WILLIE, we will see a 20-1 GOLD SILVER RATIO down the line. We have to remember, when a US TREASURY DEFAULT COMES.....there will be a MAD RUSH into REAL THINGS. It is being discussed now that GOLD may be half of the backing of a new world currency between the OIL PRODUCING STATES, CHINA, RUSSIA and many European countries.

The Plan by the ROTHSCHILDS is to destroy the USA. People think WARREN BUFFET or BILL GATES are the wealthiest men on the PLANET. Forbes only puts these PUFF PIECES for the MOOOS of the world. You will never see the ROTHSCHILDS or BILDERBERGS in the TOP 10 list. The ROTHSCHILDS started the FED through stooges in the SENATE and ETC. They also started the BIS and IMF. In the 1900's they began making themself HIDDEN from the PUBLIC and MEDIA by FRONT MEN and COMPANIES.

ANyhow......look for CITIBANK to go UNDER at some point in time. There is a BIG WAR going on in the CURRENCY PITS. Its WORLD WAR III between RUSSIA, CHINA, and IRAN, against the ANGLO SAXON masters of UK and USA. The UK and USA will lose as the INTERNET is opening up to the BELLY OF THE BEAST....the OLIGARCHY. Also, the UK peaked in MINERAL PRODUCTION compared in percentage to the world in the middle 1800's and the USA peaked in 1950. It is game over for these FAT WHITE ARTHRITIC BULLIES.

LASTLY....don't worry about SHELBY and I. We are GOOD. We don't take each other THAT SERIOUS....not good for the TICKER...you know what I mean. And for you...who thinks me DISTASTEFUL.....well....you can't put a smile on everyones FACE...and I am not wasting my time to be FRIENDS when the TRUTH is more important. But that being said......you'll get to like me sooner or later. Or at least realize I am more right than the MORONS selling SUBSCRIPTIONS like MAULDIN, PRECHTER, GARTMAN, WEISS, NORTH...and all the other BOZOS.

best regards

steve

Steve,

I did not say I found YOU distasteful I said I found the TRIUMPHALISM distasteful.

However, I was combative and for that I apologize.

On many of the other issues that you touched on in your reply we are on the same page. How about a truce?

Regards,

James

Yes SRSrocco and I are good, I appreciate everyone's input to the discussion. Also angophera, I get your point that we do not want to be too TRUIMPHANT in philosophy (assuming we will get there too fast or in a straight line). SRSrocco often points out coming PMs spot price dips with his following of the COTs with Ted Butler.

Wave theory is nothing more than the oxymoron "predicting history" (predicting the past), because they change their wave counts every 24 hours as what they thought might happen doesn't happen.

One thing is for sure, and that we won't get to any thing in a straight line. So if we have a mathematically sound methodology to capture gains from the zigzag wave energy, we should probably make a lot more money than buy and hold. I think I have enumerated such a strategy for those who prefer not to have all their net worth in physical metal all of the time:

http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/precious-metals-f6/gold-as-an-investment-t60-30.htm#2002

Btw, I took profits on the +10% in silver this week. That was too much, too fast to not take it in my strategy at above link. My strategy above says to buy again on any -2% dip. Don't look a gift horse in the mouth, +10% in a week is too much to leave on the table.

I do agree that the Baltic index is pointing towards another crisis. But in the short-term, appears that companies will be able to report huge profits in Q4 due to relaxation of "mark-to-market". This is a mirage, but may lift the markets and sentiment to new highs.

Looks like zigzag (volatility) will continue to be the more dominant theme.

Please realize that a deflation of production, can result in an inflation of prices, i.e. shortages. The current mis-allocation (stimulus, bailouts, etc) of capital by the govts and central banks of the world, has increased redundant production, which thus will mean a deflation of production in the end. Which can be inflationary in the things we need. In summary, the redirection of capital by govts and central banks away from necessary production, to unnecessary production, will end up causing deflation overall but an inflation of prices (and increase shortage) in things that would normally be necessary production. So yes we can have deflation and inflation at same time.

In such a scenario, I think it is possible that gold holds up, but silver does not. I don't see a total collapse of the monetary system any time soon. Rather I see the common man selling his silverware in order to raise capital to buy food. There is like 15 Boz of silverware in world.

Shelby wrote:...In such a scenario, I think it is possible that gold holds up, but silver does not. I don't see a total collapse of the monetary system any time soon. Rather I see the common man selling his silverware in order to raise capital to buy food. There is like 15 Boz of silverware in world.

Hommel has a provocative & factual series of recent articles on the size of the silver & gold markets:

http://silverstockreport.com/2009/tiny-silver.html
http://silverstockreport.com/2009/tiny-silver-II.html
http://silverstockreport.com/2009/tiny-silver-III.html
http://silverstockreport.com/2009/tiny-silver-IV.html
http://silverstockreport.com/2009/tiny-gold.html

Hommel wrote:...I don't know why people don't get this. Math matters. To engineers, it's life and death when building a bridge. You'd think that the world's engineers and math teachers would be screaming at the top of their lungs to get people to buy gold, simply because of the implications of the math. Where are they? The thing I don't understand is why most people refuse to run the numbers. And why don't they understand the implications of the numbers that I present?

It's clear to me that gold is going higher than I can imagine or forecast, and that silver will do a lot better...

I think what Hommel is missing is that the annual **PHYSICAL** flow in these markets is tiny compared to the above ground PHYSICAL stocks. For example, there is apparently 15 Boz of silverware in western world:

http://www.coolpage.com/commentary/economic/shelby/Silver%20Up%20To%205x%20More%20Rare%20Than%20Gold.html

The price can be moved higher in order to bring in just enough physical recycling to cover the physical demand. And I suspect the volatility plays a key role, with high swings in the price causing enough people to jump to sell their scrap, then price can be brought down again to discourage investors. That is why I am favoring my method of extracting the wave energy from volatility (but not for my core physical position obviously, only for my trading capital that I want to be more liquid in fiat...yeah I know it will be illiquid if ever the default happens):

http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/precious-metals-f6/gold-as-an-investment-t60-30.htm#2002

The problem for the investors is the reality that the Cumulative Average price (see Kitco.com Historical prices) for silver is only +12% from 2007 to 2008 and -9% thus far from 2008 to 2009 year-to-date. The price for 81 days remaining in 2009 would have to average $19.13 in order for investors to merely break even for 2009:

81 x P + 284 x $13.81 = 365 x $14.99, P = $19.13

So let me re-iterate that as long as the price is controlled, then volatility can be used to kill investors, while also bringing in just enough recycling to prevent a physical default of the market. The problem with Hommel's math is it is static and doesn't factor in a dynamic (differential equation) analysis of volatility. So 7th grade math isn't enough. That is the answer to his question.

If there was a sustained investor buying the face of price volatility, then Hommel's math would be accurate. But investors don't invest without regard to price, because for now, we need fiat to buy things, not metal. The key power the fiat masters have is due to our ever growing need for fiat. You see the fiat masters diluted the quantity of fiat by about 50% ($12+ trillion) recently (adding enormous debt, mis-allocation of resources, and increased demand for fiat debt payments), but the cumulative average price of gold & silver have not doubled. I think Hommel fails to understand the power of the fiat system. Like all exponential growth phenomenon, it will die with a bang after reaching an insane exponential overshoot peak, it will not be sane static math type decay. Hommel made the same mistake when he was expecting silver stocks to do well. He is underestimating the power of exponential phenomenon (i.e. the volatility of the end peak which can peak over a decade, far outlasting the staying power of investors), especially the fiat one which is a monopoly on world commerce. The fiat system is dysfunctional and no one can decouple willingly.

Nevertheless, 15 Boz is only 2 oz of silver person in the world. And it is only $250 billion at current prices. And not all of that will come to market at current prices or ever. Indeed a few billionaires could easily default the silver market, but the problem is they wouldn't live very long. Watch out for radioactive laced umbrella needle tips and Russian secret agents. This is war you know.

Hi Shelby,

You wrote:
"That is why I am favoring my method of extracting the wave energy from volatility (but not for my core physical position obviously, only for my trading capital that I want to be more liquid in fiat...yeah I know it will be illiquid if ever the default happens):"

One of the things I fret about is the ever growing list of potential catalysts for default (of one type or another.) Professor Michael Hudson has been advising groups in Iceland on how to respond to the demands for their Govt (read taxpayers) to pony up for the sins of their private banks (eg. UK wants around $5 billion). There is a movement there now to tell them NO WAY.

Also this from Professor Christopher Quigley (a world famous Irish scholar and expert on the US Constitution).

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/quigley/2009/1009.html

Quote from Prof Quigley:
"Amazingly increasing numbers of Americans are applying for US passports asserting their citizenship of their home (Ed. State) republics and rejecting their option of recognizing the Federal State, which in American jurisprudence relates solely to the District of Columbia and territories."

"This issue has become a powder-keg because it appears that the I.R.S. has no constitutional power outside the Federal Area and if you are not a Federal citizen, but simply an American citizen of one of the 50 American states, the I.R.S. has no actual jurisdiction over you under common law. Once this "secret" becomes mainstream the Federal dollar is as good a(s) dead. No collectable taxes equals no Federal Reserve dollar."

"As people around the World begin to comprehend the magnitude of this legal conundrum it can only have serious implications for the future value of the dollar and the price of silver and gold."

I would also add that if the States take up their right to SECEDE I have read material that claims that the State Republics can also do something else LEGALLY under the Constitution to solve a few problems:

REPUDIATE ALL Federal Government and Treasury debt instruments.

Maybe they will prefer debt slavery and insolvency a la California instead of wiping the slate clean. Then again, maybe not.

There seems to be so many directions from which a Black Swan could arise that I don't think anyone can monitor them all. Having said that, my gut feeling is that the "end is NOT nigh" but I think the closer we get risk analysis will become virtually impossible. Your trading system looks like it can get you in-an-out in minutes so that appears to be very low risk.

Let me pose a question: If the day comes where we cannot get gold or silver on any acceptable terms what is the next best store of value we can accumulate that will be likely to still be obtainable?

If we could identify this/these items we could seek to lock down supply ahead of an event that most people have not the faintest fear of at present ie. no gold or silver to be had.

angophera wrote:...Maybe they will prefer debt slavery and insolvency a la California instead of wiping the slate clean. Then again, maybe not...

California usually leads the nation in trends. I say most states will, but it will only take 1 state to go the other way which create massive sucking sound of capital & people fleeing the other states to the state which appeals to their ideals. There are millions of people in the USA ready to fight socialism if they are given a conduit. Indeed the PTB have anticipated this, and I have often said everything as we know it will end the day that this shift starts in earnest. Everyone knows war is coming in USA, it is only a question of when. Most people place the timeline out towards 2012 or 2014 or so. The current socialism really has to start biting before I think you will see the drastic moves where people would uproot their entire families, etc.. Note the millions who ralled recently in WA D.C were not covered by the mainstream press, who reported it as "1000s".

http://www.real-debt-elimination.com/tax_freedom.htm

...Wayne Madsen Reports has learned from knowledgeable sources within the US financial community that an alarming confidential and limited distribution document is circulating among senior members of Congress and their senior staff members warning of a bleak future for the United States if it does not quickly get its financial house in order.

The document is being called the "C & R" document because it reportedly states that if the United States defaults on loans and debt underwriting from China, Japan, and Russia, all of which are propping up the United States government financially, and the United States unilaterally cancels the debts, America can expect a war that will have disastrous results for the United States and the world. "Conflict" is the "C word" in the document The other scenario is that the federal government will be forced to drastically raise taxes in order to pay off debts to foreign countries to the point that the American people will react with a popular revolution against the government. "Revolution" is the document's "R word"...

Concerning the "US sitizen", i.e. the corporation and the natural citizen, the problem is you can't do anything, can even drive on roads if don't subjugate yourself to that corporate citizenship. A social security number makes you a "US citizen", not a "citizen of these United States". So such "movements" have no teeth and this will be reveal as we go forward, and those communities will be slaughtered or they will uproot themselves and migrate together so they have mass to fight with. Better if you uproot your family now and get on with it...

As a case in point, notice that Quigley's link to the legal code was already turned off:

http://deoxy.org/lib/2us.htm

Note Google still has a cache'd copy which I have inserted to the end of this post.

angophera wrote:...There seems to be so many directions from which a Black Swan could arise that I don't think anyone can monitor them all. Having said that, my gut feeling is that the "end is NOT nigh" but I think the closer we get risk analysis will become virtually impossible. Your trading system looks like it can get you in-an-out in minutes so that appears to be very low risk...

Here some discussion of geo-political risks (thinks Iraq will worsen, China&Russia bleeding us with Iraq war, etc):

http://www.modavox.com/voiceamerica/vepisode.aspx?aid=39899 (start at 16 min point)

The PTB want you scared. The idea is to drag this out as long as there is more capital they can steal (i.e. they diluted value of dollar by 50%, but gold&silver did not double in price). This keeps you hiding and ineffective while they rape & pillage for next few years. I think they are amplifying the rumors, etc on purpose. The bottom line is until we see things really bad for people in USA and in Asia, then there simply isn't enough pain to get the people to agree to some cataclysmic changes.

I plan to scale out, because just because I can sell out of an ETF, doesn't mean I can immediately convert the cash into something that can avoid the pitfalls of capital controls, etc..

Also I think the key is that trading in an ETF is not a productive activity and is something we should all be striving to find a better new business investment for our capital. I am merely using it in short-term, while I don't have a better near-term option other than let it sit cash. I don't want to buy physical gold&silver and then turn around have to sell them again later as I find business investments for my capital.

Each person's situation will be unique and my strategy is appropriate for me at this specific time and may not apply to someone else.

angophera wrote:...Let me pose a question: If the day comes where we cannot get gold or silver on any acceptable terms what is the next best store of value we can accumulate that will be likely to still be obtainable?

If we could identify this/these items we could seek to lock down supply ahead of an event that most people have not the faintest fear of at present ie. no gold or silver to be had.

I have a philosophical problem with hoarding. Hoarding is a 0 sum game, someone has to lose for you to gain. In most cases, I would rather I would rather be doing something productive to foil the attempts of the PTB to cause shortages. It may be useful to hoard when consumables, e.g. fuel, are below cost, so as to drive the price up and keep the industry from collapsing. But this is only the case is the excess supply is a result of manipulation and not natural oversupply. I don't think this applies to monetary metals, unless you are prepared to use your metals unselfishly to help your community adopt it as money and if you have sufficient scale.

I am telling you there are so many business opportunities in the developing world and you could be getting out there and putting idle resources to work in economies that have 80% youth and can not stop growing (after any short-term downturn caused by collapse of the west). If you target for the lowest cost essentials, there should always be some demand.

Think about it. We in the west should be helping to transfers our knowledge and wealth to the poor people of the world. We have been selfish and are paying the price. It is time to get out of the arm chair, move your families, and be proactive. Waiting for the problem to come to you is just more selfish behavior.

Hoarding physical gold&silver? What does that do to help the world? We don't have enough scale to default the dollar and the PTB ahead of their schedule. If ever I have enough capital to break the Comex (dreaming), then I (or any billionaire out there) could get serious about dumping everything into silver (and get yourself killed probably). For now, I really only need to buy as much metal as I think I need for my personal survival, which isn't too much. Beyond that I can look to continually take say 10% of my income and save it in metal in grains, that could be easily distributed to the people to help them overcome any major takedown by the PTB. And the 90% can be continually reinvested in prosperity and foiling the PTB's aims.


Interesting interview suggests that monetary inflation could keep us in a very volatile trading triangle through 2012 (Bernanke would achieve his promise to avoid the deep downturn of the Great Depression):

http://www.modavox.com/voiceamerica/vepisode.aspx?aid=41251

A signal of alternative collapse scenario would be the Hindenburg Omen:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_Omen


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http://74.125.153.132/search?q=cache:uSFfKvS2VpAJ:deoxy.org/lib/2us.htm+http://deoxy.org/lib/2us.htm&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk

The Two United States and the Law
by Howard Freeman
The information is this article is not intended in any manner to replace qualified legal advice.

Our forefathers, weary of the oppressive measures that King George III's government forced upon them, in common declared their independence from England in 1776. They were not expected to be successful in that resistance. The moneyed people had backed England for two major reasons. First, our forefathers wanted a rigid, written Constitution "set in concrete." They were familiar with the so-called Constitution of England which consisted largely of customs, precedents, traditions, and understandings, often vague and always flexible. They wanted the principle of English common law, that an act done by any official person or lawmaking body beyond his or its legal competence was simply void. Second, the thirteen little colonies desired to base their union on substance (gold and silver) -- real money. They well knew how the despotic governments of Europe were mortgaged to the hilt -- lock, stock, and barrel, the land, the people, everything -- to certain wealthy men who controlled the banks, the currency, and all credit, who lent credit but did not loan gold and silver!

The United States of America was made up of a union of what is now fifty sovereign States, a three-branch (legislative, executive, and judicial) Republic known as The United States of America, or as termed in this article, the Continental United States. Its citizenry live in one of the fifty States, and its laws are based on the Constitution, which is based on Common Law. It has become an administrative (bureaucratic) legislative democracy via the obligation of contract being extended by duplicity and deception.

Less than one hundred years after we became a nation, a loophole was discovered in the Constitution by cunning lawyers in league with the international bankers. They realized that a separate nation existed, by the same name, that Congress had created in Article I, Section 8, Clause 17. This "United States" is a Legislative Democracy within the Constitutional Republic, and is known as the Federal United States. It has exclusive, unlimited rule over its Citizenry, the residents of the District of Colombia, the territories and enclaves (Guam, Midway Islands, Wake Island, Puerto Rico, etc.), and anyone who is a Citizen by way of the 14th Amendment (naturalized Citizens).

Both United States have the same Congress that rules in both nations. One "United States," the Republic of fifty States, has the "stars and stripes" as its flag, but without any fringe on it. The Federal United States' flag is the stars and stripes with a yellow fringe, seen in all the courts. The abbreviations of the States of the Continental United States are, with or without the zip codes, Ala., Alas., Ariz., Ark., Cal., etc. The abbreviations of the States under the jurisdiction of the Federal United States, the Legislative Democracy, are AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, etc. (without any periods).

Under the Constitution, based on Common Law, the Republic of the Continental United States provides for legal cases

1. at Law,
2. in Equity, and
3. in Admiralty:

(l) Law is the collective organization of the individual right to lawful defense. It is the will of the majority, the organization of the natural right of lawful defense. It is the substitution of a common force for individual forces, to do only what the individual forces have a natural and lawful right to do: to protect persons, liberties, and properties; to maintain the right of each, and to cause justice to reign over us all. Since an individual cannot lawfully use force against the person, liberty, or property of another individual, then the common force -- for the same reason -- cannot lawfully be used to destroy the person, liberty, or property of individuals or groups. Law allows you to do anything you want to, as long as you don't infringe upon the life, liberty or property of anyone else. Law does not compel performance. Today's so-called laws (ordinances, statutes, acts, regulations, orders, precepts, etc.) are often erroneously perceived as law, but just because something is called a "law" does not necessarily make it a law. [There is a difference between "legal" and "lawful." Anything the government does is legal, but it may not be lawful.]

(2) Equity is the jurisdiction of compelled performance (for any contract you are a party to) and is based on what is fair in a particular situation. The term "equity" denotes the spirit and habit of fairness, justness, and right dealing which would regulate the intercourse of men with men. You have no rights other than what is specified in your contract. Equity has no criminal aspects to it.

(3) Admiralty is compelled performance plus a criminal penalty, a civil contract with a criminal penalty.

By 1938 the gradual merger procedurally between law and equity actions (i.e., the same court has jurisdiction over legal, equitable, and admiralty matters) was recognized. The nation was bankrupt and was owned by its creditors (the international bankers) who now owned everything -- the Congress, the Executive, the courts, all the States and their legislatures and executives, all the land, and all the people. Everything was mortgaged in the national debt. We had gone from being sovereigns over government to subjects under government, through the use of negotiable instruments to discharge our debts with limited liability, instead of paying our debts at common law with gold or silver coin.

The remainder of this article explains how this happened, where we are today, and what remedy we have to protect ourselves from this system.
Our Present Commercial System of "Law" and the REMEDY Provided for Our Protection
The present commercial system of "law" has replaced the old and familiar Common Law upon which our nation was founded. The following is the legal thread which brought us from sovereigns over government to subjects under government, through the use of negotiable instruments (Federal Reserve Notes) to discharge our debts with limited liability instead of paying our debts at common law with gold or silver coin.

The change in our system of law from public law to private commercial law was recognized by the Supreme Court of the United States in the Erie Railroad vs. Thompkins case of 1938, after which case, in the same year, the procedures of Law were officially blended with the procedures of Equity. Prior to 1938, all U.S. Supreme Court decisions were based upon public law -- or that system of law that was controlled by Constitutional limitation. Since 1938, all U.S. Supreme Court decisions are based upon what is termed public policy.

Public policy concerns commercial transactions made under the Negotiable Instrument's Law, which is a branch of the international Law Merchant. This has been codified into what is now known as the Uniform Commercial Code, which system of law was made uniform throughout the fifty States through the cunning of the Congress of the United States (which "United States" has its origin in Article I, Section 8, Clause 17 of the Constitution, as distinguished from the "United States," which is the Union of the fifty States).

In offering grants of negotiable paper (Federal Reserve Notes) which the Congress gave to the fifty States of the Union for education, highways, health, and other purposes, Congress bound all the States of the Union into a commercial agreement with the Federal United States (as distinguished from the Continental United States). The fifty States accepted the "benefits" offered by the Federal United States as the consideration of a commercial agreement between the Federal United States and each of the corporate States. The corporate States were then obligated to obey the Congress of the Federal United States and also to assume their portion of the equitable debts of the Federal United States to the international banking houses, for the credit loaned. The credit which each State received, in the form of federal grants, was predicated upon equitable paper.

This system of negotiable paper binds all corporate entities of government together in a vast system of commercial agreements and is what has altered our court system from one under the Common Law to a Legislative Article I Court, or Tribunal, system of commercial law. Those persons brought before this court are held to the letter of every statute of government on the federal, state, county, or municipal levels unless they have exercised the REMEDY provided for them within that system of Commercial Law whereby, when forced to use a so-called "benefit" offered, or available, to them, from government, they may reserve their former right, under the Common Law guarantee of same, not to be bound by any contract, or commercial agreement, that they did not enter knowingly, voluntarily, and intentionally.

This is exactly how the corporate entities of state, county, and municipal governments got entangled with the Legislative Democracy, created by Article I, Section 8, Clause 17 of the Constitution, and called here The Federal United States, to distinguish it from the Continental United States, whose origin was in the Union of the Sovereign States.

The same national Congress rules the Continental United States pursuant to Constitutional limits upon its authority, while it enjoys exclusive rule, with no Constitutional limitations, as it legislates for the Federal United States.

With the above information, we may ask: "How did we, the free Preamble citizenry of the Sovereign States, lose our guaranteed unalienable rights and be forced into acceptance of the equitable debt obligations of the Federal United States, and also become subject to that entity of government, and divorced from our Sovereign States in the Republic, which we call here the Continental United States?" We do not reside, work, or have income from any territory subject to the direct jurisdiction of the Federal United States. These are questions that have troubled sincere, patriotic Americans for many years. Our lack of knowledge concerning the cunning of the legal profession is the cause of that divorce, but a knowledge of the truth concerning the legal thread, which caught us in its net, will restore our former status as a free Preamble citizen of the Republic.

The answer follows:

Our national Congress works for two nations foreign to each other, and by legal cunning both are called The United States. One is the Union of Sovereign States, under the Constitution, termed in this article the Continental United States. The other is a Legislative Democracy which has its origin in Article I, Section 8, Clause 17 of the Constitution, here termed the Federal United States. Very few people, when they see some "law" passed by Congress, ask themselves, "Which nation was Congress working for when it passed this or that so-called law?" Or, few ask, "Does this particular law apply to the Continental citizenry of the Republic, or does this particular law apply only to residents of the District of Columbia and other named enclaves, or territories, of the Democracy called the Federal United States?"

Since these questions are seldom asked by the uninformed citizenry of the Republic, it was an open invitation for "cunning" political leadership to seek more power and authority over the entire citizenry of the Republic through the medium of "legalese." Congress deliberately failed in its duty to provide a medium of exchange for the citizenry of the Republic, in harmony with its Constitutional mandate. Instead, it created an abundance of commercial credit money for the Legislative Democracy, where it was not bound by Constitutional limitations. Then, after having created an emergency situation, and a tremendous depression in the Republic, Congress used its emergency authority to remove the remaining substance (gold and silver) from the medium of exchange belonging to the Republic, and made the negotiable instrument paper of the Legislative Democracy (Federal United States) a legal tender for Continental United States citizenry to use in the discharge of debts.

At the same time, Congress granted the entire citizenry of the two nations the "benefit" of limited liability in the discharge of all debts by telling the citizenry that the gold and silver coins of the Republic were out of date and cumbersome. The citizens were told that gold and silver (substance) was no longer needed to pay their debts, that they were now "privileged" to discharge debt with this more "convenient" currency, issued by the Federal United States. Consequently, everyone was forced to "go modern," and to turn in their gold as a patriotic gesture. The entire news media complex went along with the scam and declared it to be a forward step for our democracy, no longer referring to America as a Republic.

From that time on, it was a falling light for the Republic of 1776, and a rising light for Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal Democracy, which overcame the depression, which was caused by a created shortage of real money. There was created an abundance of debt paper money, so-called, in the form of interest-bearing negotiable instrument paper called Federal Reserve Notes, and other forms of paperwork credit instruments.

Since all contracts since Roosevelt's time have the colorable consideration of Federal Reserve Notes, instead of a genuine consideration of silver and gold coin, all contracts are colorable contracts, and not genuine contracts. [According to Black's Law Dictionary (1990), colorable means "That which is in appearance only, and not in reality, what it purports to be, hence counterfeit, feigned, having the appearance of truth."]

Consequently, a new colorable jurisdiction, called a statutory jurisdiction, had to be created to enforce the contracts. Soon the term colorable contract was changed to the term commercial agreement to fit circumstances of the new statutory jurisdiction, which is legislative, rather than judicial, in nature. This jurisdiction enforces commercial agreements upon implied consent, rather than full knowledge, as it is with the enforcement of contracts under the Common Law.

All of our courts today sit as legislative Tribunals, and the so-called "statutes" of legislative bodies being enforced in these Legislative Tribunals are not "statutes" passed by the legislative branch of our three-branch Republic, but as "commercial obligations" to the Federal United States for anyone in the Federal United States or in the Continental United States who has used the equitable currency of the Federal United States and who has accepted the "benefit," or "privilege," of discharging his debts with the limited liability "benefit" offered to him by the Federal United States ... EXCEPT those who availed themselves of the remedy within this commercial system of law, which remedy is today found in Book 1 of the Uniform Commercial Code at Section 207.

When used in conjunction with one's signature, a stamp stating "Without Prejudice U.C.C. 1-207" is sufficient to indicate to the magistrate of any of our present Legislative Tribunals (called "courts") that the signer of the document has reserved his Common Law right. He is not to be bound to the statute, or commercial obligation, of any commercial agreement that he did not enter knowingly, voluntarily, and intentionally, as would be the case in any Common Law contract.

Furthermore, pursuant to U.C.C. 1-103, the statute, being enforced as a commercial obligation of a commercial agreement, must now be construed in harmony with the old Common Law of America, where the tribunal/court must rule that the statute does not apply to the individual who is wise enough and informed enough to exercise the remedy provided in this new system of law. He retains his former status in the Republic and fully enjoys his unalienable rights, guaranteed to him by the Constitution of the Republic, while those about him "curse the darkness" of Commercial Law government, lacking the truth needed to free themselves from a slave status under the Federal United States, even while inhabiting territory foreign to its territorial venue.

Editor's note: the following excerpts are from letters in which Mr. Freeman further clarifies the REMEDY, as given to us in UCC 1-207, and the distinctions between Public Policy and Public Law:

Dear:

"There is an important "right" available to you. The name of the right is "Allocution". It is presumed to have been waived if it is not requested! The purpose in demanding it is to preserve the "legal issues" brought up in the case, and overruled by the trial court. Otherwise, one's appeal from a criminal conviction to a higher Court will only be a review of the "Fact Issues" decided in the lower Court, the Law Issues of the case are presumed to have been waived by the accused, unless those issues have been preserved though the right of "allocution."

There is more that can follow one's exercise of that right, and I will cover that, but first, let me explain what allocution is.

Once the Court, or a Jury, has found you guilty of disobedience to a commercial statute demanding, or prohibiting, performance in a specified manner, you, the accused, have the right of "Allocution", which right, consists of having the Court (Judge) ask you on the record of the case (be sure that the Court Reporter is including this in the case transcript) "Is there any reason why this Court should not sentence you at this time?"

Being asked that question by the Court, in the Court Record is all there is to your right of Allocution, but a proper response upon the Court Record by the accused shows that same has not waived dispute upon the legal issues of the case, which were overruled by the trial Court, and now those issues may be brought up on appeal. The proper response of the accused upon being confronted with this question from the Judge, which allocution requires of him, is "Your Honor, the accused, in this criminal case, coming as it does from a colorable jurisdiction over his person and property, does object to being sentenced by this court at this time, because conviction in this case has been base upon The Facts of the case, while the Law Issues are still in dispute - namely - the Courts' Colorable Jurisdiction in this Criminal charge, which lacks the essence of a substantial claim by a damaged party."

At this point, your right of Allocution has preserved for you your right to bring Law Issues into your Appeal. Now, I will bring to your attention an additional benefit of exercising your right of Allocution, which I alluded to earlier in this letter: After you have placed the above response to the Judge's question in the record, I would suggest that you continue on in the following manner: "Your Honor, the accused in this case would like to put this Court ON NOTICE, that if it DOES pronounce sentence at this time, over the OBJECTIONS of the accused, that the accused will formulate his objection, before a higher Court, IN THE NATURE OF A WRIT OF ERROR (see Supervisory Control in Black's 5th Law Dictionary)."

The reason for the remark above is that the Court will tell you that WRITS OF ERROR have been done away with in modern Courts. In that situation, point out to the Judge that you do NOT intend to file a GENUINE WRIT OF ERROR, which is not recognized in colorable Jurisdictions, but that you stated on the record of the court that your OBJECTION to being sentenced at this time on FACT ISSUES while the LAW ISSUES of the case are still in dispute would be: IN THE NATURE OF A WRIT OF ERROR which is a Colorable Objection recognized under the name of Supervisory Control in Black's 5th.

The advantage of an objection in the nature of a writ of error is that the Judge (not you) must bring forth the Transcript, or Record, of the case to the higher panel of Judges, and, the burden of proof is upon that Judge to show that the Jurisdiction that he exercised over your person and property existed AS A FACT OF LAW, and further, he must show the legal basis for EACH RULING ON ISSUES OF LAW that the Transcript shows that an objection thereto was made by the accused.

Now you know the benefit of stating your objection in the nature of a Writ of Error, over making an appeal, wherein the expense of bringing forth the transcript is on you, as well as, the burden of proof on all the law issues in dispute."

Sincerely,
Howard Freeman
Dear:

"What has public policy to do with Commercial Law? To grasp that you must understand that the US Constitution being based upon the Common Law and the Common Law being based upon substance (silver & gold) made it impossible for Congress when working for the 3-branch government created by the Union of States to borrow anything but silver or gold for what I will call the Continental United States , but Article I, Section 8, Clause 17 of the Constitution gave the same Congress exclusive rule of the District of Columbia and other territories and enclaves mentioned in Clause 17. This entity I will call for our purposes here Federal United States. With that exclusive rule of that legislative democracy, called here Federal United States, Congress was able to borrow non-substance (bank credit) from International Banking Houses in the name of Federal United States which loans began in Civil War times and continues today to the point that the paper debt exceeds 3 Trillion in loans of bank credit. Federal United States was long ago a bankrupt nation so it no longer legislated "public law" pursuant to the interests of the people it served, but since 1938 it legislates "public policy" in the interests of the nation's creditors. It is not in the interest of the people for Congress to give billions to Russia or Israel so that becomes "public policy" in the interest of the nation's creditors. Now the Commercial Code comes into play when the Congress of the bankrupt Federal United States, in its duty to pass public policy statutes in the interest of the creditors of Federal United States, failed in its duty to coin gold or silver as a medium of exchange for Continental United States creating a depression therein, through a shortage of real money (genuine dollars). Then Franklin Roosevelt declared gold a barbaric metal, and with emergency powers given to him, brought America "up to date" by making colorable Federal Reserve Notes legal tender throughout Continental United States. Since colorable dollars, based upon the debt obligations of Federal United States, are now employed as a medium of exchange for Continental United States through the neglect of Congress in its duty to Continental United States, and the so called "blessings" of executive orders of FDR under his emergency powers, Continental United States is in a contract relationship with Federal United States and the debts of Federal United States are now equally, the debts of Continental United States and all of the inhabitants thereof UNLESS the inhabitants thereof in doing business in colorable dollars (commercial paper) reserve their Common Law Rights under the REMEDY provided for them in that system of Commercial Law called: The Uniform Commercial Code. I hope this brief summary of events answers your questions.

Most cordially yours,
Howard Freeman.
ADDENDUM

U.C.C. 1-207:4 Sufficiency of reservation.

Any expression indicating any intention to preserve rights is sufficient, such as "without prejudice," "under protest," "under reservation," or "with reservation of all our rights."

The Code states an "explicit" reservation must be made. "Explicit" undoubtedly is used in place of "express" to indicate that the reservation must not only be "express" but it must also be "clear" that such a reservation was intended.

The term "explicit" as used in U.C.C. 1-207 means "that which is so clearly stated or distinctively set forth that there is no doubt as to its meaning." ....

U.C.C. 1-207:7 Effect of reservation of rights.
The making of a valid reservation of rights preserves whatever rights the person then possesses and prevents the loss of such right by application of concepts of waiver or estoppel ....

U.C.C. 1-207:9 Failure to make reservation.
When a waivable right or claim is involved, the failure to make a reservation thereof causes a loss of the right and bars its assertion at a later date ....

U.C.C. 1-103:6 Common law.
The Code is "Complementary" to the common law which remains in force except where displaced by the Code ....

A statute should be construed in harmony with the common law unless there is a clear legislative intent to abrogate the common law.... "The Code cannot be read to preclude a common law action."

EXAMPLE

Your Honor, my use of "Without Prejudice UCC 1-207" above my signature on this document indicates that I have exercised the "Remedy" provided for me in the Uniform Commercial Code in Book 1 at Section 207, whereby I may reserve my Common Law right not to be compelled to perform under any contract, or agreement, that I have not entered into knowingly, voluntarily, and intentionally. And, that reservation serves notice upon all administrative agencies of government -- national, state and local -- that I do not, and will not, accept the liability associated with the "compelled" benefit of any unrevealed commercial agreement.

The Three United States!

Point & figure has silver moving to $26:
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$SILVER

http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/precious-metals-f6/gold-as-an-investment-t60-30.htm#2014

Shelby wrote:...I agree with this (had on Monday come to exact same conclusion in about COTs likely to go much higher before next take down, see bold in my prior posts):

http://www.kitco.com/ind/maund/oct062009_gold.html

Nevertheless, I am up 8% on the portion I bought at $16.10 ($15.92 SLV) only 2 days ago on Monday, so I will look to sell that this week, and then wait for a mini consolidation to load up even more. The whole point of my new strategy, is you always sell gains, and buy consolidations, that are more than +/-1% a day. I am allowing a little more than 1% right at moment, because we have a rocket shot volatility at the moment with this upthrust...

http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/precious-metals-f6/silver-as-an-investment-t33-195.htm#2021

Shelby wrote:...One thing is for sure, and that we won't get to any thing in a straight line. So if we have a mathematically sound methodology to capture gains from the zigzag wave energy, we should probably make a lot more money than buy and hold. I think I have enumerated such a strategy for those who prefer not to have all their net worth in physical metal all of the time:

http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/precious-metals-f6/gold-as-an-investment-t60-30.htm#2002

Btw, I took profits on the +10% in silver this week. That was too much, too fast to not take it in my strategy at above link. My strategy above says to buy again on any -2% dip. Don't look a gift horse in the mouth, +10% in a week is too much to leave on the table.

I do agree that the Baltic index is pointing towards another crisis. But in the short-term, appears that companies will be able to report huge profits in Q4 due to relaxation of "mark-to-market". This is a mirage, but may lift the markets and sentiment to new highs.

Looks like zigzag (volatility) will continue to be the more dominant theme...

Re-purchased 7.5% of my trading capital at $17.30 ($17.10 SLV) today.

Quote from Shelby:

"The whole point of my new strategy, is you always sell gains, and buy consolidations, that are more than +/-1% a day."

Sounds good, but I don't want to miss the big move. When it comes I think it will be up big, in a flash. Then a lot of persons will get excited and buy at the temporary top, then they will take it down.

Tried the consolidation game with Hecla (HL). It worked a couple of times, then I missed out on the latest 100% move.